期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 52, 期 -, 页码 149-165出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.019
关键词
Cellular-automata; Integration; Calibration; Land use modelling; Participation; Stakeholders
类别
资金
- Organismo Autonomo de Parques Nacionales (OAPN) a dependency of the Spanish Ministry for the Environment
- EU 7th Framework Programme project COMPLEX [308601]
The increasing adoption of land use models in planning and policy development highlights the need for an integrated approach that combines analytical modelling techniques with discursive 'soft-science' methodologies. Recent scientific contributions to the discipline have tended to focus on analytical problems such as statistical assessment of model goodness of fit through map comparison techniques, while the problem of integrating stakeholder information into land use models has received little attention. Using the example of a land use model developed for the Guadiamar basin in South West Spain, location of the emblematic Donana natural area, an integrated methodology for participatory calibration and evaluation of model results is presented which combines information from key stakeholders across a range of sectors with analytical model calibration techniques. Both discursive and analytical techniques are presented side by side to demonstrate that including participatory approaches is likely to improve both calibration results and model applicability. Integration of participatory methods into land use models is more likely to be successful if stakeholders are selected carefully so as to make best possible use of their time and knowledge, and are involved in the modelling process from the beginning of the project cycle. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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