期刊
ENERGY
卷 57, 期 -, 页码 66-75出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.03.072
关键词
CCS retrofit; CCS investment cost; CO2 capture flexibility; SCPC plant; Real options
资金
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (gs1) [XDA05150700]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (gs2) [71273253, 71133005, 70825001]
This paper focuses on the investment decision to retrofit an existing supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC) unit with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. We establish a valuation model with discrete sequential investment decision-making based on real options theory, and we consider the following uncertainty factors: electricity price, carbon price, CCS investment cost and CO2 additional O&M cost. We also take CCS operation flexibility into account. We solve the model using the least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) method. We employ four indicators-cost saving value, investment risk, emission abatement amount and average capture rate-to evaluate the investment decision to retrofit China's existing SCPC unit with CCS. The results illustrate the following: (1) CO2 capture (additional O&M) cost can be the most significant factor that will affect CCS retrofit investment; (2) the existing level of CCS technology and policy framework cannot support the plant owner to retrofit the existing SCPC unit with CCS; and (3) the carbon price or capture subsidy must be at a high level to control the CCS retrofit investment risk such that it is less than 5%. Our proposed model is most suitable for plant owners' CCS retrofit decisions. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据