Defining indirect uncertainty in system-based risk management

This paper defined a new concept concerning information variability within the risk modeling procedure in order to illuminate the handling of uncertainty on the system scale. With respect to scientific uncertainty, most definitions proposed are largely focused on the knowledge insufficiency or data imperfection of a model that notoriously impairs the robustness of simulation output. However, the uncertainty inherent in the indirect effect of a multi-component system (e.g., an ecosystem), which serves as the major source of the information variability responsible for the ultimate fate of the system, has never been expressly unfolded. Herein, we developed a new concept called indirect uncertainty (IU) to represent the variability along with the indirect process of information propagation throughout the system. Particularly, we adapted IU to the system-based ecological risk assessment by using qualitative reasoning, whereby hopefully we can reveal the potential application of IU analysis. Based on this, IU analysis was recommended to be incorporated into the risk management framework as a necessary complement. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.