Overwinter Low-Temperature Responses of Cereals: Analyses and Simulation

Winter survival of cereals is dependent on complex, environmentally induced responses that affect just about every measurable morphological, physiological, and biochemical characteristic of the plant. Simulation models offer a valuable means for the integration of knowledge accumulated from detailed physiological, agronomic, genetic, and genomics studies, thereby improving our understanding of complicated plant responses. A well-designed model also provides an effective extension and teaching tool and the opportunity for systematic investigation of production risks, cause-and-effect processes, genetic theories, and adjustments needed to mitigate the possible effects of climate change. Earlier, we developed and deployed a Winter Cereal Survival Model based on a series of equations that described acclimation, vernalization, dehardening, and damage due to low temperature (LT) stress. A modular design has permitted modification and allowed for interfacing with other simulation models. Recent advances in our understanding of this agronomically important character have provided us with the opportunity to develop a more robust winter survival simulation model with a wider geographic application that now also considers cultivar acclimation threshold induction temperature (T-i), respiration stress, photoperiod, and other developmental factors. The model has been field validated and provides the opportunity for the simulation of a wide range of species and overwinter environments.