4.5 Article

Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty

期刊

CLIMATIC CHANGE
卷 128, 期 1-2, 页码 71-84

出版社

SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1290-1

关键词

-

资金

  1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [5 U01 EH000405]
  2. National Institutes of Health (NIH) [1R21ES020225]
  3. Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy [DEAC05-00OR22725]
  4. Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program

向作者/读者索取更多资源

The spatial pattern of the uncertainty in air pollution-related health impacts due to climate change has rarely been studied due to the lack of high-resolution model simulations, especially under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the latest greenhouse gas emission pathways. We estimated future tropospheric ozone (O-3) and related excess mortality and evaluated the associated uncertainties in the continental United States under RCPs. Based on dynamically downscaled climate model simulations, we calculated changes in O-3 level at 12 km resolution between the future (2057 and 2059) and base years (2001-2004) under a low-to-medium emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil fuel intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). We then estimated the excess mortality attributable to changes in O-3. Finally, we analyzed the sensitivity of the excess mortality estimates to the input variables and the uncertainty in the excess mortality estimation using Monte Carlo simulations. O-3-related premature deaths in the continental U.S. were estimated to be 1312 deaths/year under RCP8.5 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 427 to 2198) and -2118 deaths/year under RCP4.5 (95 % CI: -3021 to -1216), when allowing for climate change and emissions reduction. The uncertainty of O-3-related excess mortality estimates was mainly caused by RCP emissions pathways. Excess mortality estimates attributable to the combined effect of climate and emission changes on O-3 as well as the associated uncertainties vary substantially in space and so do the most influential input variables. Spatially resolved data is crucial to develop effective community level mitigation and adaptation policy.

作者

我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。

评论

主要评分

4.5
评分不足

次要评分

新颖性
-
重要性
-
科学严谨性
-
评价这篇论文

推荐

Article Environmental Sciences

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and its effects on human health: An overeview

Manthar Ali Mallah, Changxing Li, Mukhtiar Ali Mallah, Sobia Noreen, Yang Liu, Muhammad Saeed, He Xi, Bilal Ahmed, Feifei Feng, Ali Asghar Mirjat, Wei Wang, Abdul Jabar, Muhammad Naveed, Jian-Hua Li, Qiao Zhang

Summary: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are chemical contaminants of environmental significance. PAH pollution mainly comes from anthropogenic sources and can pose a significant threat to human health. Long-term exposure to PAHs can lead to tumor development in multiple organs and increase the risk of lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Studies have shown a relationship between PAH exposure, oxidative stress, and atherosclerosis.

CHEMOSPHERE (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 major components and mortality in the southeastern United States

Yifan Wang, Siyao Xiao, Yuhan Zhang, Howard Chang, Randall V. Martin, Aaron Van Donkelaar, Audrey Gaskins, Yang Liu, Pengfei Liu, Liuhua Shi

Summary: This study conducted a population-based cohort study to explore the associations between long-term exposure to major PM2.5 components and all-cause mortality among the elderly. The results showed that all five major PM2.5 components were significantly associated with elevated all-cause mortality, with combustion-related components having a greater impact.

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

A machine learning model to estimate ground-level ozone concentrations in California using TROPOMI data and high-resolution meteorology

Wenhao Wang, Xiong Liu, Jianzhao Bi, Yang Liu

Summary: Estimating ground-level ozone concentrations using satellite data and machine learning models can provide valuable insights into the spatial and temporal variations of ozone levels. The study in California revealed high ozone levels in suburban Los Angeles and Southern California, while lower levels were observed in the Bay Area and along the Pacific coast.

ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL (2022)

Article Forestry

Projection of future wildfire emissions in western USA under climate change: contributions from changes in wildfire, fuel loading and fuel moisture

Yongqiang Liu, Yang Liu, Joshua Fu, Cheng-En Yang, Xingyi Dong, Hanqin Tian, Bo Tao, Jia Yang, Yuhang Wang, Yufei Zou, Ziming Ke

Summary: This study compared the future changes in fire emissions in the western USA under climate change, finding that wildfires and fuel loading are projected to increase while fuel moisture decreases, leading to a significant rise in fire emissions. The findings highlight the importance of considering changes in fuel conditions in the future to improve the accuracy of fire emission projections.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Projections of future wildfires impacts on air pollutants and air toxics in a changing climate over the western United States

Cheng-En Yang, Joshua S. Fu, Yongqiang Liu, Xinyi Dong, Yang Liu

Summary: This study evaluates the impact of wildfires on air pollutants and air toxics in the western US under future climate scenarios. The results show that despite small changes in the future, the contribution of wildfires to air pollution may increase by more than tenfold, leading to more severe impacts on air quality and health.

ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (2022)

Article Environmental Sciences

Long-term PM2.5 exposure in association with chronic respiratory diseases morbidity: A cohort study in Northern China

Mengfan Yan, Han Ge, Liwen Zhang, Xi Chen, Xueli Yang, Fangchao Liu, Anqi Shan, Fengchao Liang, Xuejun Li, Zhao Ma, Guanghui Dong, Yamin Liu, Jie Chen, Tong Wang, Baoxin Zhao, Qiang Zeng, Xiangfeng Lu, Yang Liu, Nai-jun Tang

Summary: A retrospective cohort study in northern China found that long-term exposure to high levels of PM2.5 increases the risk of chronic respiratory diseases.

ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY (2022)

Article Engineering, Environmental

Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter and Incidence of Major Cardiovascular Diseases: A Prospective Study of 0.5 Million Adults in China

Cong Liu, Ka Hung Chan, Jun Lv, Hubert Lam, Katherine Newell, Xia Meng, Yang Liu, Renjie Chen, Christiana Kartsonaki, Neil Wright, Huaidong Du, Ling Yang, Yiping Chen, Yu Guo, Pei Pei, Canqing Yu, Hongbing Shen, Tangchun Wu, Haidong Kan, Zhengming Chen, Liming Li

Summary: This study aimed to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in China. A prospective cohort study of over 500,000 adults found a positive and linear relationship between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and incidence of CVDs, without a threshold effect.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (2022)

Review Chemistry, Multidisciplinary

Bimetallic adsorbents for wastewater treatment: a review

Aaron Albert Aryee, Yang Liu, Runping Han, Lingbo Qu

Summary: The rising pollution of water resources is a serious threat to human health and ecosystems, requiring advanced methods for water purification. Bimetallic adsorbents have recently been developed as effective solutions for water and wastewater treatment due to their multiple functionalities, easy fabrication, high specific surface area and volume ratio. This review focuses on the preparation methods, characterization, substrates, mechanisms and cost of bimetallic adsorbents, including graphene, polymers, metal-organic frameworks, zeolite, mesoporous silica, cellulose, chitosan, clay, carbonaceous waste and composites. It is observed that the synergy between the substrate and metal ions enhances the adsorption capacity by providing more active adsorption sites.

ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMISTRY LETTERS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

New processing methodology to incorporate marine halocarbons and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emissions from the CAMS-GLOB-OCE dataset in air quality modeling studies

Ernesto Pino-Cortes, Katherine Gomez, Fernando Gonzalez Taboada, Joshua S. Fu, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Juan Hofer

Summary: This study describes a method to adapt the CAMS-GLOB-OCE dataset for use in the preprocessor software SMOKE. The method involves updating file attributes and bilinear interpolation of compound emission fields. Testing the method with halocarbon and DMS emissions fields around Antarctica showed its potential for including marine emissions in air quality studies.

AIR QUALITY ATMOSPHERE AND HEALTH (2023)

Article Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

The role of global reanalyses in climate services for health: Insights from the Lancet Countdown

Claudia Di Napoli, Marina Romanello, Kelton Minor, Jonathan Chambers, Shouro Dasgupta, Luis E. Escobar, Yun Hang, Risto Haenninen, Yang Liu, Martin Lotto Batista, Rachel Lowe, Kris A. Murray, Fereidoon Owfi, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Liuhua Shi, Mikhail Sofiev, Meisam Tabatabaei, Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson

Summary: As the connection between extreme weather, climate changes, and health impacts becomes clearer, it is crucial to make climate-smart decisions to improve the responsiveness and resilience of the public health sector. Climate services for health integrate climate and health information to provide decision-support tools. The Lancet Countdown monitoring system uses global climate reanalyses products to track annual changes in health-related outcomes. By retrieving and processing multiple variables from reanalysis datasets, the system captures various climate-related hazards and their impacts on human health across the globe.

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Long-term exposure to particulate matter and COPD mortality: Insights from causal inference methods based on a large population cohort in southern China

Ying Wang, Zhicheng Du, Yuqin Zhang, Shirui Chen, Shao Lin, Philip K. Hopke, David Q. Rich, Kai Zhang, Xiaobo X. Romeiko, Xinlei Deng, Yanji Qu, Yu Liu, Ziqiang Lin, Shuming Zhu, Wangjian Zhang, Yuantao Hao

Summary: Using state-of-the-art causal inference approaches, this large cohort study in southern China found a causal relationship between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality. The detrimental effects were more pronounced among the elderly and inactive participants. Therefore, there is an urgent need for more effective strategies to reduce PM exposure and pay particular attention to vulnerable groups.

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Satellite-Based Long-Term Spatiotemporal Trends in Ambient NO2 Concentrations and Attributable Health Burdens in China From 2005 to 2020

Keyong Huang, Qingyang Zhu, Xiangfeng Lu, Dongfeng Gu, Yang Liu

Summary: This study developed a satellite-based ensemble machine learning model to predict 16-year NO2 levels in China and identified a high mortality burden attributed to NO2, which has significant implications for environmental policy making.

GEOHEALTH (2023)

Article Geosciences, Multidisciplinary

Sustained emission reductions have restrained the ozone pollution over China

Yutong Wang, Yu Zhao, Yiming Liu, Yueqi Jiang, Bo Zheng, Jia Xing, Yang Liu, Shuai Wang, Chris P. Nielsen

Summary: Near-surface ozone pollution is one of the biggest challenges in China's air quality management. This study uses measurements from the national air quality monitoring network to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of ozone concentrations from 2010 to 2021. The results show that the national air pollution control programme has effectively reduced ozone levels in China, with emission reductions and changing meteorological conditions playing a role. Furthermore, the effectiveness of emission controls varies by region and season, with rural areas and summer showing greater improvements. Thus, future efforts to control ozone pollution should consider these regional and seasonal variations to target the most important precursors.

NATURE GEOSCIENCE (2023)

Article Environmental Sciences

Adsorption of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and glyphosate from water by Fe3O4-UiO-66-NH2 obtained in a simple green way

Xiaoting Zhang, Yang Liu, Lingbo Qu, Runping Han

Summary: In this study, a green adsorbent (Fe3O4-UiO-66-NH2) was synthesized using a co-precipitation method and showed excellent adsorption performance for 2,4-D and GP. The adsorbent demonstrated a wide pH range, high salt tolerance, and good regeneration performance. It can effectively remove 2,4-D and GP from water.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH (2023)

Article Engineering, Environmental

Wildland Fires Worsened Population Exposure to PM2.5 Pollution in the Contiguous United States

Danlu Zhang, Wenhao Wang, Yuzhi Xi, Jianzhao Bi, Yun Hang, Qingyang Zhu, Qiang Pu, Howard Chang, Yang Liu

Summary: As wildland fires become more frequent and intense, the impact of fire smoke on air quality has worsened significantly, especially on the West Coast and in the Southeastern U.S. Over the past decade, fire smoke contributed over 25% of daily PM2.5 concentrations at most monitoring sites in the U.S., with residents further away from monitoring sites experiencing a higher smoke impact. Furthermore, excluding the contribution of fire smoke would result in a higher compliance rate with the national ambient air quality standard.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (2023)

暂无数据