Impacts of climate change on growth, migration and recruitment success of Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the western North Pacific

We developed a multi-trophic level ecosystem model by coupling physical, biogeochemical-plankton and fish models. An oceanic general circulation model was coupled with a lower trophic level ecosystem model and a Japanese sardine migration model, and applied to the western North Pacific. To investigate the impact of global warming on the pelagic fish ecosystem, such as Japanese sardine, we conducted numerical experiments of growth and migration of Japanese sardine using physical fields for the present day and future with a global warming scenario simulated by a high-resolution climate model. The model results demonstrated possible impacts of global warming on the growth and migration pattern of Japanese sardine. The growths of fish in the current main spawning region under the global warming scenario were significantly slower than those under the present climate scenario. Fish in this region will be at disadvantage for their recruitment under the global warming condition. Prey conditions in the spawning region were projected not to markedly change under global warming condition while water temperature increased. As a result sardine spawning ground was projected to shift towards more north areas. During the feeding migration period in summer, geographical distribution of juveniles fish was projected to shift northwards by one to two degrees latitude under the global warming condition following the change in the distribution of optimal temperature region for feeding. However, this northwards shift of the optimal temperature for feeding was minimized adjacent to the western North Pacific by the cooler water supply by the intensification of the Oyashio.