A common mode of variability of African and Indian monsoon rainfall at decadal timescale

There are many factors and mechanisms capable of influencing and perturbing rainfall in both African and Indian monsoon regions. Using observed data and ensembles of Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations, evidence is presented that an association between the two systems exists on decadal timescales and the mechanism responsible for this common mode is suggested. Decadal variability of rainfall in the two monsoon systems results from a large scale forcing induced by an interplay of different ocean basins. The emerging pattern is characterized by warmer (cooler) equatorial and cooler (warmer) extratropical regions, more visible in the northern hemisphere. This large scale forcing pattern leads to an upper-level pressure gradient between the equator and the monsoon regions which modifies also the Tropical Easterly Jet, thus providing a potential link between the African and Indian monsoon. The response is baroclinic, therefore at low levels, the pressure gradient reverses and leads to increased (reduced) pressure over the Saharan and Indian region, both being favourable for a weakening (strengthening) of the respective monsoons. Therefore, the predictability of the monsoon trends depends mainly on how well the sea surface temperature modes, which modulate the monsoons variability, can be predicted.