Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
H. Segura, C. Hohenegger, C. Wengel, B. Stevens
Summary: Using the ICON-S model, we are able to effectively describe the seasonal and diurnal features of the tropical rainbelt. The model performs well over land and shows high agreement with observations. However, it struggles to capture the seasonal features of the rainbelt over the oceans in the Eastern Hemisphere, which is associated with a cold sea surface temperature bias.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Marie-Noelle Bouin, Fleur Couvreux, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Summary: This study presents and discusses a modeling case study based on observations from the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation field campaign, aiming to investigate ocean-atmosphere coupling and boundary-layer structure over an oceanic diurnal warm layer. The research uses a 1D oceanic model with high vertical resolution to study the mechanisms responsible for the formation and decay of the diurnal warm layer, highlighting the competing impact of various factors. The atmospheric large-eddy simulation coupled with the 1D oceanic model is able to reproduce surface fluxes and boundary-layer structures, providing insights into parametrizations' ability to handle ocean-atmosphere coupling and its impact on the atmospheric boundary layer.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Sergey Frolov, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Michael Alexander, Maria Flatau, Neil P. Barton, Patrick Hogan, Clark Rowley
Summary: The study explores patterns of correlations between the ocean and atmosphere using high-resolution ensemble data assimilative forecasts. Three distinct coupling regimes emerge, influenced by mesoscale eddies, atmospheric convection, and mixed layer depth. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution is required for coupling in boundary currents, the tropical Indian Ocean, and warm pool regions.
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Hsi-Yen Ma, Stephen A. Klein, Jiwoo Lee, Min-Seop Ahn, Cheng Tao, Peter J. Gleckler
Summary: This study investigates daily and sub-daily precipitation statistics from three global model ensembles. The results show that global storm-resolving models (GSRMs) perform better in statistics of heavier rain rate events, while high-resolution and standard-resolution models fail to accurately simulate the diurnal cycle and propagation of precipitation.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hansi K. A. Singh, Laura Landrum, Marika M. Holland, David A. Bailey, Alice K. DuVivier
Summary: Antarctic sea ice in CESM2 is thinner and less extensive compared to CESM1, but the annual cycle of ice growth and melt is more vigorous. The new mushy layer thermodynamics formulation in CESM2 accounts for greater frazil ice formation in coastal polynyas and more snow-to-ice conversion near the edge of the ice pack.
JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Aurore Voldoire, Romain Roehrig, Herve Giordani, Robin Waldman, Yunyan Zhang, Shaocheng Xie, Marie-Noelle Bouin
Summary: This article introduces the development of a single-column CNRM-CM6-1 global climate model for evaluating its ability to represent the diurnal variability of sea surface temperature, highlighting the impact of coupling on the atmosphere and the importance of choosing a coupling time step.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Benjamin O. Johnson, Homas L. Delworth
Summary: This study uses a global climate model to investigate the role of the Gulf of California in the North American monsoon. The results show that the Gulf of California significantly impacts circulation and increases moisture fluxes, leading to higher precipitation in the monsoon region. This highlights the importance of considering the Gulf of California in climate simulations and future projections.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
B. Yadidya, A. D. Rao, Sachiko Mohanty
Summary: This study used a coupled model to simulate the diurnal variations in temperature, salinity, and density in the surface mixed layer and pycnocline of the ocean. The simulations showed promising results and have potential applications in simulating acoustic fields and propagation losses for Navy operations.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hui Li, Aixue Hu, Gerald A. Meehl, Nan Rosenbloom, Warren G. Strand
Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) can affect ocean heat content and temperature by enhancing turbulent mixing. This study investigates the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using a fully coupled modeling framework. The results show that TCs can increase ocean heat content by influencing ocean mixing, air-sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. TCs also have significant effects on sea surface temperature, precipitation, subsurface temperature, and mixed layer depth. The study provides new insights into the interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Hamed D. Ibrahim, Yunfang Sun
Summary: Characterizing the physical processes that modulate the heat partitioning between the ocean and atmosphere is important for monitoring the heat flow in the ocean due to climate change. The study finds that the rainfall sensible heat flux (Qp) is significant at both short and long time scales, accounting for up to 22.5% of sea surface net heat flux. Qp acts as a modulator by controlling the partitioning of heat energy and the cycle of heat flow between the ocean and atmosphere.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ayumu Miyamoto, Hisashi Nakamura, Takafumi Miyasaka, Yu Kosaka
Summary: The study reveals that low-level clouds play a crucial role in reinforcing the summertime Mascarene high by affecting sea surface temperature, forming a tight positive feedback system with the subtropical high.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Seong-Bin Cho, Sang-Keun Song, Zang-Ho Shon, Soo-Hwan Moon
Summary: In this study, a coupled simulation with a chemical transport model (CMAQ) and atmosphere-ocean coupling was used to assess the impact of natural emissions on air quality in South Korea. The results showed good agreement with observations and revealed the significant contributions of natural marine and biogenic emissions to PM2.5 mass and O3 concentrations. Biogenic emissions, particularly isoprene and monoterpene, played a significant role in secondary organic aerosol production. The coupling effect enhanced secondary aerosol formation through gas-to-particle conversion processes.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Anne Marie Treguier, Pierre Mathiot, Tim Graham, Dan Copsey, Camille Lique, Jean Sterlin
Summary: The Nordic seas serve as a gateway to the Arctic Ocean where Atlantic water undergoes cooling. The high-resolution Met Office Global Coupled Model GC3 reveals differences between eastern and western regions, with the western region experiencing greater ocean heat loss, largely due to ice melt.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Xingchi Wang, Tobias Kukulka, J. Thomas Farrar, Albert J. Plueddemann, Seth F. Zippel
Summary: The turbulent ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL) shoals during daytime solar surface heating, developing a diurnal warm layer (DWL). The DWL significantly influences OSBL dynamics by trapping momentum and heat in a shallow near-surface layer. Therefore, DWL depth is critical for understanding OSBL transport and ocean-atmosphere coupling.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Joonlee Lee, Myong-In Lee, Joong-Bae Ahn
Summary: This study investigates the impact of imbalanced oceanic initial conditions on seasonal prediction skills using a coupled forecasting system. The results show that balanced initial conditions significantly improve prediction skills, particularly in the winter forecasts for ocean, sea ice, and atmospheric variables. The study also highlights the negative impact of initialization shock caused by spatial discontinuity and dynamic imbalance on prediction skills.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Douglas J. Parker, Alan M. Blyth, Steven J. Woolnough, Andrew J. Dougill, Caroline L. Bain, Estelle de Coning, Mariane Diop-Kane, Andre Kamga Foamouhoue, Benjamin Lamptey, Ousmane Ndiaye, Paolo Ruti, Elijah A. Adefisan, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Cathryn E. Birch, Carlo Cafaro, Hamish Carr, Benard Chanzu, Samantha J. Clarke, Helen Coskeran, Sylvester K. Danuor, Felipe M. de Andrade, Kone Diakaria, Cheikh Dione, Cheikh Abdoulahat Diop, Jennifer K. Fletcher, Amadou T. Gaye, James L. Groves, Masilin Gudoshava, Andrew J. Hartley, Linda C. Hirons, Ishiyaku Ibrahim, Tamora D. James, Kamoru A. Lawal, John H. Marsham, J. N. Mutemi, Emmanuel Chilekwu Okogbue, Eniola Olaniyan, J. B. Omotosho, Joseph Portuphy, Alexander J. Roberts, Juliane Schwendike, Zewdu T. Segele, Thorwald H. M. Stein, Andrea L. Taylor, Christopher M. Taylor, Tanya A. Warnaars, Stuart Webster, Beth J. Woodhams, Lorraine Youds
Summary: Africa has the potential to benefit greatly from advancements in weather predictions, and the SWIFT project is playing a significant role in advancing scientific solutions and enhancing forecasting capabilities in the region. By focusing on research, training, and collaboration between academia and operational agencies, SWIFT is helping to build capacity in African meteorology and improve the quality and relevance of weather forecasts.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
G. Srinivas, J. Vialard, M. Lengaigne, T. Izumo, E. Guilyardi
Summary: This study investigates the roles of atmospheric nonlinearities and asymmetrical sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the asymmetrical rainfall response of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that atmospheric nonlinearities play a significant role in the ENSO rainfall asymmetry, with contributions from the nonlinear term and the linear thermodynamical term. The asymmetrical SST pattern of ENSO also contributes to the rainfall asymmetry, along with atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Emma Howard, Simon Thomas, Thomas H. A. Frame, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, John Methven, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, Steven J. Woolnough
Summary: Two sets of weather patterns in Southeast Asia are presented and compared, showing the ability to capture different modes of tropical circulation variability. The study found that while the patterns can distinguish various climate modes effectively, there are still some modes that are not well captured. The weather patterns show promising potential in extending the useful forecast range for the risk of heavy precipitation.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ajay Gambhir, Mel George, Haewon McJeon, Nigel W. Arnell, Daniel Bernie, Shivika Mittal, Alexandre C. Koberle, Jason Lowe, Joeri Rogelj, Seth Monteith
Summary: This study presents an integrated framework to assess future climate risks under different greenhouse gas emissions and temperature pathways, highlighting key factors influencing transition risks and physical risks by 2030 and 2050. It reveals a balance between economic transition costs and physical climate threats in mitigation pathway design, emphasizing the importance of considering technological, policy, and socio-economic factors in addressing transition risks.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
J. Mak, D. P. Marshall, G. Madec, J. R. Maddison
Summary: The global ocean overturning circulation is crucial for climate evolution and is sensitive to the mesoscale eddy energy dissipation timescale. This study highlights the importance of constraining uncertainties associated with eddy energy dissipation for climate model projections over centennial timescales and paleoclimate simulations over millennial timescales.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Masilin Gudoshava, Caroline Wainwright, Linda Hirons, Hussen S. Endris, Zewdu T. Segele, Steve Woolnough, Zachary Atheru, Guleid Artan
Summary: The timing of the rainy season is crucial for various sectors in Eastern Africa. Early onset is associated with increased rainfall and warmer sea surface temperatures, while late onset is associated with rainfall deficit and cooler sea surface temperatures. The variability in onset date is influenced by Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and circulation.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Simon H. H. Lee, Andrew J. J. Charlton-Perez, Steven J. J. Woolnough, Jason C. C. Furtado
Summary: This study investigates the impact of forecast error and uncertainty in the polar vortex on predictions of large-scale weather patterns called regimes over North America. The results provide a framework for interpreting the stratospheric influence on North American regime behavior and can be used to improve weather forecast models.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yona Silvy, Jean-Baptiste Sallee, Eric Guilyardi, Juliette Mignot, Clement Rousset
Summary: This study investigates the mechanisms driving regional ocean warming and its emergence from internal variability. It finds that the contribution of different processes can vary in time, affecting the time of emergence of subsurface temperature changes.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Brady S. Ferster, Amelie Simon, Alexey Fedorov, Juliette Mignot, Eric Guilyardi
Summary: The study investigates the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and North Atlantic climate. The results show that the reduction in dense water formation led to a weakening of AMOC, which was later compensated by intensified dense water formation in the Western Subpolar North Atlantic. The wind-driven intensification of the subpolar gyre caused a depth-extended cold anomaly in the North Atlantic similar to the warming hole.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Emma Howard, Samantha Ferrett, Thomas H. A. Frame, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, John Methven, Steven J. Woolnough
Summary: In this study, pattern-conditioned probabilistic rainfall forecasts were produced by combining the horizontal winds from the Met Office GloSea5 prediction system with weather patterns. The results showed that this approach outperformed model-simulated rainfall hindcasts in predicting rainfall for lead times of 10-20 days. This is a fundamental step for the development of subseasonal prediction systems for Southeast Asia.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Freya K. K. Garry, Dan J. J. Bernie
Summary: This article presents a framework for evaluating the relationships between different variables and understanding the biases in these relationships. The study focuses on the relationship between temperature and precipitation in the UK and identifies regional patterns of biases in both correlation coefficients and linear regression coefficients. The differences in model resolution and design contribute to the bias in these relationships.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Rachel J. Perks, Dan Bernie, Jason Lowe, Robert Neal
Summary: When local extreme water levels surpass defences, the consequences can be devastating. We assess the importance of sea-level rise and future weather pattern changes on UK coastal flood impacts. The study found that sea-level rise dominates future coastal risk and is highly linked to the future emission scenarios.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Amulya Chevuturi, Nicholas P. Klingaman, Steven J. Woolnough, Conrado M. Rudorff, Caio A. S. Coelho, Jochen Schongart
Summary: Accurate prediction of the maximum water levels of the Negro River in Manaus is crucial for effective mitigation measures. By using dynamical seasonal prediction hindcasts, we were able to extend the lead time of statistical models for earlier forecasts. The developed ensemble forecasts, using input from observations and seasonal hindcasts, perform similarly to the original statistical forecasts and gain one month of lead time.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Laura C. Dawkins, Dan J. Bernie, Jason A. Lowe, Theodoros Economou
Summary: Climate change adaptation decisions often require considering risk rather than just the environmental hazard. One way to quantify risk is to use a risk assessment framework that combines information about hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The CLIMADA open-source platform and ensembles of climate models can be used to estimate climate risk and uncertainty. We propose a novel framework that applies the CLIMADA platform to assess climate risk across space and overcomes the limitation of limited ensemble members.
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yona Silvy, Clement Rousset, Eric Guilyardi, Jean-Baptiste Sallee, Juliette Mignot, Christian Ethe, Gurvan Madec
Summary: The ocean responds to climate change by modifying heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes at its boundaries. Understanding the specific role of each contributor in shaping ocean thermohaline structure changes is crucial for understanding climate change. This study proposes a modeling framework to isolate these contributions and analyze historical and projected ocean changes within single climate models. The results provide new opportunities for studying the mechanisms driving ocean changes.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)