期刊
CATENA
卷 110, 期 -, 页码 32-43出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2013.06.015
关键词
Historical floods; Palaeohydrology; Dendrogeomorphology; Ungauged basins; Flood frequency analysis
资金
- Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation
- MAS Dendro-Avenidas project [CGL2010-19274]
- Geological Survey of Spain (IGME)
One of the main problems of flood hazard assessment in ungauged or poorly gauged basins is the lack of runoff data. In an attempt to overcome this problem we have combined archival records, dendrogeomorphic time series and instrumental data (daily rainfall and discharge) from four ungauged and poorly gauged mountain basins in Central Spain with the aim of reconstructing and compiling information on 41 flash flood events since the end of the 19th century. Estimation of historical discharge and the incorporation of uncertainty for the at-site and regional flood frequency analysis were performed with an empirical rainfall-runoff assessment as well as stochastic and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. Results for each of the ungauged basins include flood frequency, severity, seasonality and triggers (synoptic meteorological situations). The reconstructed data series clearly demonstrates how uncertainty can be reduced by including historical information, but also points to the considerable influence of different approaches on quantile estimation. This uncertainty should be taken into account when these data are used for flood risk management. (c) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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