Management strategy analysis for multispecies fisheries, including technical interactions and human behavior in modelling management decisions and fishing

A multispecies fishery management strategy evaluation (MSE) framework based on the example of the groundfish fishery in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands region of Alaska was used to examine the interplay between a bycatch species and three groundfish species. The study introduces a framework for a realistic multispecies fishery MSE by accounting for fleet dynamics, multispecies fishery quota allocation, and the temporal dynamics of technical interactions. The quota allocation and the fleet dynamics models were implemented using linear programming, and regression approaches were used to make a realistic projection of future users' behavioral response to changes in the fishery. The models were calibrated and then validated using historical and out-of-sample data, respectively. The results highlight the importance of accounting for technical interactions and their interannual dynamics for both quota allocation and fleet dynamics to design a realistic multispecies fishery MSE (without them, the amount of lost yield increased). Therefore, particular attention should be paid to understanding human behavior as well as its uncertainty and to refining approaches to incorporate this information into a multispecies fishery management strategy analysis.