The response of flowering time to global warming in a high-altitude plant: the impact of genetics and the environment

In high-altitude habitats, an increase in temperature and greater precipitation in the form of rain represent climate changes typically associated with global warming. We determined whether phenotypic plasticity and genetic changes in the mean phenotype could affect the adaptation of flowering time to changes in the environment resulting from global warming in a montane plant species, Aquilegia coerulea James. We collected seeds from 17 plants from each of three natural populations. For each of these 51 families, we assigned 3-4 individuals to each of four water and temperature treatments. We observed phenotypic plasticity in flowering time in response to both temperature and water availability but no genetic variance or genetic differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. These results indicate that phenotypic plasticity could provide a quick response to environmental changes but provides little evolutionary potential. In contrast to phenotypic plasticity in flowering time, the mean flowering time did vary among families and among populations, suggesting a genetic basis to flowering time and adaptation in the different populations. The most likely scenario for the adaptation of this plant species to climate change is a rapid response via phenotypic plasticity followed by selection and micro-evolutionary changes in the mean phenotype.