Spatial and temporal variation in dispersal pattern of an invasive pine

Understanding dispersal ability of an invasive species is crucial for describing its potential spread. Despite this, we still know little about the dispersal potential of many invasive species. We explored dispersal spectra in Pinus strobus, an invasive tree in sandstone areas in Central Europe. We studied dispersal of the species using distribution of self-sown trees in the field. We compared these observed data with theoretical dispersal curves derived using information on wind speed, seed terminal velocity and tree height. Finally, we fitted various empirical dispersal curves to the observed data. All the analyses based on the observed field data were done for the whole dataset, and for the dataset divided by habitat types and age categories of the self-sown trees. P. strobus seeds can disperse up to 757.5 m from the source. The observed data fall within the confidence intervals of the predictions based on a negative exponential model. When comparing different dispersal functions fitted to the data, it was not easy to decide which of the dispersal curves provides the overall best fit. This was because different functions were the best predictors of different parts of the dispersal curve. We suggest that future studies should provide not only empirical fitted dispersal curves but also observed data and provide estimates of confidence intervals. Such information will provide insights into the reliability of the dispersal estimates in general and help to evaluate the predictive power of the different models.