Article
Management
Benjamin Balzer, Antonio Rosato
Summary: The study analyzes the bidding behavior of expectation-based loss-averse bidders in auctions with interdependent values. It highlights the difference between extensive risk and intensive risk faced by the bidders, and how they react to these risks based on whether they incorporate their bid into their reference point. By hiding information to leverage intensive risk, a seller can attain higher revenue in auctions with loss-averse bidders.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Economics
Marta Arroyabe, Katrin Hussinger
Summary: The winner's curse refers to the phenomenon where the winner of a bidding contest ends up paying a price that is higher than necessary. This study demonstrates that even with acquisition experience, firms still fall victim to the winner's curse in the market of corporate control, paying a higher price for the target in a bidding contest. However, acquisition experience is associated with better post-acquisition performance for the winning firm.
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Tao Jiang, Dipender Gill, Adam S. Butterworth, Stephen Burgess
Summary: Through an empirical investigation, we discovered a bias in genetic association studies, known as "winner's curse", which results in overestimation of associations in the original data set. This bias can impact Mendelian randomization estimates, however, its practical effect is not substantial.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Business, Finance
Jing Li, Tingjun Liu, Ran Zhao
Summary: The study shows that withholding favorable information can serve as a preemptive strategy for informed bidders in takeover auctions, reducing the rival's participation and creating a winner's curse. Stronger competition may decrease target shareholders' payoff, increase the informed bidder's payoff, and improve social welfare. However, increased competition and disclosure may not always lead to better outcomes, as "hardened" information can reduce gains to trade and shareholder welfare.
Article
Environmental Studies
Dapeng Zhang, Qiaoqiao Wang, Yang Yang
Summary: The purpose of this study is to synthesize the overall effect size of tourism on poverty alleviation and to identify the factors contributing to the heterogeneity of this effect size. The study finds that tourism has a moderate negative effect on poverty reduction. Additionally, the use of Gini coefficient as a proxy for poverty gap may underestimate the negative effect size of tourism. The study also highlights a tendency among researchers to report a positive relationship between tourism and poverty in the literature.
TOURISM MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Business
Alan Blankley, Jason MacGregor, Michael J. Mowchan
Summary: The recent announcement by GE to tender its 2020 audit has brought attention to the possibility of auditors falling victim to the winner's curse phenomenon. This article describes how the winner's curse influences bidding success, its unique application in audit bidding, and considerations for preparing accurate audit bids.
Article
Mathematics
Dong-Her Shih, Ting-Wei Wu, Ming-Hung Shih, Wei-Cheng Tsai, David C. Yen
Summary: Online auctions offer convenience and efficiency, but challenges such as bribery, result manipulation, and the winner's curse still exist. A proposed Online Auction Price Suggestion System utilizes SGX technology and blockchain characteristics to protect data and provide smart contracts to reduce buyer losses caused by information uncertainty.
Editorial Material
Education & Educational Research
Jeffrey C. C. Valentine
Summary: Published studies on intervention effects may overestimate the true effect size. One possible reason for this is the winner's curse. This essay discusses evidence from recent studies that demonstrate how evidence clearinghouses can unintentionally fall into the winner's curse, outlines reasonable and unreasonable expectations for evidence clearinghouses, and proposes strategies to reduce their exposure to the winner's curse.
JOURNAL OF RESEARCH ON EDUCATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS
(2023)
Article
Genetics & Heredity
Jennifer Zou, Jinjing Zhou, Sarah Faller, Robert P. Brown, Sriram S. Sankararaman, Eleazar Eskin
Summary: Genome-wide association studies have identified genetic variants associated with human traits, but only a fraction are replicated in subsequent studies. This failure of replication may be due to statistical chance or confounding factors. We propose a statistical framework to jointly model these factors and distinguish between them.
G3-GENES GENOMES GENETICS
(2022)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Erik van Zwet, Andrew Gelman
Summary: The paper discusses the bias issue when the signal-to-noise ratio is small and conditions on statistical significance, proposing the use of prior distribution to determine an appropriate amount of shrinkage. The authors demonstrate the method of estimating SNR distribution from a wide corpus and using it as a prior, while also showing that demanding equivariance of posterior inference under linear transformations simplifies the estimation of the prior.
AMERICAN STATISTICIAN
(2022)
Article
Statistics & Probability
Erik W. van Zwet, Eric A. Cator
Summary: The significance filter focuses on statistically significant results, but can lead to overestimation of parameters and undercoverage of confidence intervals, especially when power is low. It is important to apply appropriate shrinkage to counter the winner's curse.
STATISTICA NEERLANDICA
(2021)
Article
Education & Educational Research
Adrian Simpson
Summary: Evidence-based education aims to support policy makers in choosing interventions, but the winner's curse phenomenon can lead to overestimation of latent value when selecting interventions based on higher valued measures. This article uses the Education Endowment Foundation's projects in the UK as an example to illustrate the impact of the winner's curse and shows the results of adjusting for it. The issue has implications for evaluation programs, power analyses, and policy decisions.
JOURNAL OF RESEARCH ON EDUCATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS
(2023)
Article
Genetics & Heredity
Ninon Mounier, Zoltan Kutalik
Summary: The inverse-variance weighted two-sample Mendelian randomization (IVW-MR) is commonly used to infer causal effects between an exposure and an outcome using genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics. However, this approach is subject to biases due to weak instruments and winner’s curse, which can vary with the overlap between exposure and outcome samples. We developed a method called MRlap that simultaneously addresses weak instrument bias and winner’s curse while considering potential sample overlap. By assuming spike-and-slab genomic architecture and utilizing linkage disequilibrium score regression and other techniques, we could analytically derive, reliably estimate, and correct for the bias of IVW-MR using association summary statistics only. Experimental results demonstrated that our correction significantly reduced bias in causal effect estimation, even by up to 30-fold in certain scenarios. Moreover, applying MRlap to obesity-related exposures revealed differences between IVW-based and corrected effects, indicating its potential for improving causal inference. By allowing for potentially overlapping samples, our method also enables the use of larger GWAS sample sizes.
GENETIC EPIDEMIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Snigdha Panigrahi, Junjie Zhu, Chiara Sabatti
Summary: The goal of expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) studies is to identify the genetic variants influencing gene expression levels, which relies on high-throughput technology but still faces limitations due to the high cost of obtaining human tissue samples. The scientific community has adopted multiplicity adjustment procedures to control false discoveries rate while investigating the effect sizes associated with genetic variants remains a neglected challenge. The conditional inference approach can be utilized to estimate eQTL effect sizes with reliable confidence intervals, addressing the issue of underestimating the number of local genetic polymorphisms influencing gene expression levels.
Review
Genetics & Heredity
Kerstin Schott, Catharina Majer, Alla Bulashevska, Liam Childs, Mirko H. H. Schmidt, Krishnaraj Rajalingam, Markus Munder, Renate Koenig
Summary: SAMHD1, originally described as a major cellular dNTPase, has recently emerged as a key focus in cancer research due to its mutations in various cancer types and dysregulated expression. It is considered a tumor suppressor in certain cancers and may play a role in tumor development or mutator phenotype. Besides its traditional role, SAMHD1 also functions as a negative regulator of innate immune responses and facilitator of DNA end resection in DNA replication and repair processes.
JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR MEDICINE-JMM
(2022)
Article
Clinical Neurology
Joshua Stevenson-Hoare, Amanda Heslegrave, Ganna Leonenko, Dina Fathalla, Eftychia Bellou, Lauren Luckcuck, Rachel Marshall, Rebecca Sims, Bryan Paul Morgan, John Hardy, Bart de Strooper, Julie Williams, Henrik Zetterberg, Valentina Escott-Price
Summary: Plasma biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease-related pathologies have made significant progress in recent years, with well-validated blood tests available for the detection of amyloid and tau pathology, as well as neurodegeneration and astrocytic activation. This study demonstrates that a combination of five plasma biomarkers, along with genetic variants associated with these biomarkers, can be used to accurately diagnose and predict the onset of Alzheimer's disease.
Article
Neurosciences
Jingzhang Wei, Charles Arber, Selina Wray, John Hardy, Thomas M. M. Piers, Jennifer M. M. Pocock
Summary: One type of early life stress, prenatal exposure to glucocorticoids (GCs), increases the risk of psychiatric and neurodevelopmental disorders in later life. Microglial cells are being increasingly recognized for their importance in these disorders. However, research on GCs exposure during microglial development is limited, especially in human studies. In this study, an in vitro model of early life stress was established by pre-exposing human iPS-microglia to GCs during primitive hematopoiesis, and the effects on microglial phenotype were examined. The findings suggest that prolonged GCs exposure during primitive hematopoiesis leads to changes in the matured iPS-microglia, potentially contributing to ELS-associated disorders.
Article
Neurosciences
Jennifer Rollo, John Crawford, John Hardy
Summary: Alzheimer's disease is a complex pathology that requires non-linear dynamical systems modeling and community-wide participation to understand and predict its dynamics. A new methodology is proposed to integrate intuition and test system-level hypotheses and interventions.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Lilach Soreq, Hannah Bird, Wael Mohamed, John Hardy
Summary: Alzheimer's disease is a common neurological disease worldwide with no effective treatment or early detection methods. The molecular mechanisms of the disease are poorly understood, but global gene expression profiling has suggested that it is governed by diverse transcriptional regulatory networks. Through analyzing gene expression differences in single-nuclei collected from the brains of Alzheimer's disease patients and controls, we identified distinct populations of glial, immune, neuronal, and vascular cells affected by the disease.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Emily Baker, Ganna Leonenko, Karl Michael Schmidt, Matthew Hill, Amanda J. Myers, Maryam Shoai, Itziar de Rojas, Niccolo Tesi, Henne Holstege, Wiesje M. van der Flier, Yolande A. L. Pijnenburg, Agustin Ruiz, John Hardy, Sven van der Lee, Valentina Escott-Price
Summary: Late-onset Alzheimer's disease has a strong genetic component, and the heritability estimates range from 38% to 66%. The APOE region and microglial-related genes play important roles in the genetic architecture of the disease.
Correction
Neurosciences
Regina H. Reynolds, Aaron Z. Wagen, Frida Lona-Durazo, Sonja W. Scholz, Maryam Shoai, John Hardy, Sarah A. Gagliano Taliun, Mina Ryten
NPJ PARKINSONS DISEASE
(2023)
Article
Neurosciences
Regina H. Reynolds, Aaron Z. Wagen, Frida Lona-Durazo, Sonja W. Scholz, Maryam Shoai, John Hardy, Sarah A. Gagliano Taliun, Mina Ryten
Summary: Genetic correlation (r(g)) can provide insights into shared biological mechanisms. Neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric diseases have minimal global r(g), but local r(g) can exist. Applying LAVA, researchers found local r(g) between several neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric diseases, highlighting potential common therapeutic targets.
NPJ PARKINSONS DISEASE
(2023)
Article
Clinical Neurology
Harald Hampel, Yan Hu, John Hardy, Kaj Blennow, Christopher Chen, George Perry, Seung Hyun Kim, Victor L. Villemagne, Paul Aisen, Michele Vendruscolo, Takeshi Iwatsubo, Colin L. Masters, Min Cho, Lars Lannfelt, Jeffrey L. Cummings, Andrea Vergallo
Summary: This summary reviews the evidence supporting the role of the amyloid-b (Ab) pathway in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and emphasizes the importance of targeting this pathway in early stages of the disease. Understanding and targeting the A beta pathway can lead to better therapeutic outcomes and management of AD.
NEURODEGENERATIVE DISEASE MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Karishma D'Sa, Sebastian Guelfi, Jana Vandrovcova, Regina H. Reynolds, David Zhang, John Hardy, Juan A. Botia, Michael E. Weale, Sarah A. Gagliano Taliun, Kerrin S. Small, Mina Ryten
Summary: This study revealed that the genetic regulation of gene expression mainly occurs post-transcriptionally in the cytoplasm, with synaptic genes more likely to undergo this form of regulation. These findings are crucial for understanding the structure of gene expression regulation in the human brain and interpreting large-scale gene association studies.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Editorial Material
Biochemistry & Molecular Biology
Benjamin O'Callaghan, John Hardy, Helene Plun-Favreau
Summary: The genetics of Parkinson's disease has played a crucial role in understanding the PINK1-dependent mitophagy process. In this article, we examine the implications of a 2010 PLOS Biology paper that provided insight into the functional significance of PINK1 in the mitophagy cascade.
Article
Genetics & Heredity
Nurlan Kerimov, Ralf Tambets, James D. Hayhurst, Ida Rahu, Peep Kolberg, Uku Raudvere, Ivan Kuzmin, Anshika Chowdhary, Andreas Vija, Hans J. Teras, Masahiro Kanai, Jacob Ulirsch, Mina Ryten, John Hardy, Sebastian Guelfi, Daniah Trabzuni, Sarah Kim-Hellmuth, William Rayner, Hilary Finucane, Hedi Peterson, Abayomi Mosaku, Helen Parkinson, Kaur Alasoo
Summary: The eQTL Catalogue is an open database of uniformly processed human molecular quantitative trait loci (QTLs) that has been continuously updated to improve its utility in interpreting genetic associations with complex traits. The updates include an increase in the number of studies and datasets covered, implementation of statistical fine mapping, and development of static QTL coverage plots. These updates have been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting genetic variants associated with vitamin D levels in human plasma and will facilitate the interpretation of complex trait associations identified by other human genetics efforts.
Letter
Clinical Neurology
John Hardy
BRAIN COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Clinical Neurology
Connor Langworth-Green, Saisha Patel, Zane Jaunmuktane, Edwin Jabbari, Huw Morris, Maria Thom, Andrew Lees, John Hardy, Michael Zandi, Karen Duff
Summary: Tauopathies are neurodegenerative disorders characterized by the aggregation of tau protein. Chronic inflammation plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease, but its effects on tau pathology have been overlooked. Factors such as infection, brain injury, seizures, and autoimmune disease can trigger tau pathology through inflammatory processes. Understanding the chronic effects of inflammation on tauopathies may lead to the development of immunomodulatory interventions for clinical use.
Article
Medicine, Research & Experimental
Xiaopu Zhou, Yu Chen, Fanny C. F. Ip, Yuanbing Jiang, Han Cao, Ge Lv, Huan Zhong, Jiahang Chen, Tao Ye, Yuewen Chen, Yulin Zhang, Shuangshuang Ma, Ronnie M. N. Lo, Estella P. S. Tong, Vincent C. T. Mok, Timothy C. Y. Kwok, Qihao Guo, Kin Y. Mok, Maryam Shoai, John Hardy, Lei Chen, Amy K. Y. Fu, Nancy Y. Ip
Summary: Zhou et al. utilize deep learning to improve polygenic risk analysis for Alzheimer's disease. Their computational approach outperforms existing statistical methods and helps to identify potential biological mechanisms of Alzheimer's disease risk.
COMMUNICATIONS MEDICINE
(2023)
Article
Cell Biology
Karri Kaivola, Ruth Chia, Jinhui Ding, Memoona Rasheed, Masashi Fujita, Vilas Menon, Ronald L. Walton, Ryan L. Collins, Kimberley Billingsley, Harrison Brand, Michael Talkowski, Xuefang Zhao, Ramita Dewan, Ali Stark, Anindita Ray, Sultana Solaiman, Pilar Alvarez Jerez, Laksh Malik, Ted M. Dawson, Liana S. Rosenthal, Marilyn S. Albert, Olga Pletnikova, Juan C. Troncoso, Mario Maselis, Julia Keith, Eric Int LBD Genomics Consortium, Ali Int ALS FTD Consortium, Pentti PROSPECT Consortium, Toshiko Tanaka, Eric Topol, Ali Torkamani, Pentti Tienari, Tatiana M. Foroud, Bernardino Ghetti, John E. Landers, Mina Rtyen, Huw R. Morris, John A. Hardy, Letizia Mazzini, Sandra D'Alfonso, Cristina Moglia, Andrea Calvo, Geidy E. Serrano, Thomas G. Beach, Tanis Ferman, Neill R. Graff-Radford, Bradley F. Boeve, Zbigniew K. Wszolek, Dennis W. Dickson, Adriano Chio, David A. Bennett, Philip L. De Jager, Owen A. Ross, Clifton L. Dalgard, J. Raphael Gibbs, Bryan J. Traynor, Sonja W. Scholz
Summary: This study characterized the role of structural variants in Lewy body dementia (LBD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD)/amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The researchers discovered a novel risk locus for LBD and found associations between known structural variants and FTD/ALS. Rare pathogenic structural variants were also identified in both LBD and FTD/ALS. The study provides a catalog of structural variants for further understanding of the pathogenesis of these forms of dementia.
