European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2012

Background: Estimating current cancer mortality figures is important for defining priorities for prevention and treatment. Materials and methods: Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models on mortality and population data from the World Health Organization database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates in 2012 from all cancers and selected cancer sites for the whole European Union (EU) and its six more populated countries. Results: Cancer deaths in the EU in 2012 are estimated to be 1 283 101 (717 398 men and 565 703 women) corresponding to standardized overall cancer death rates of 139/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. The fall from 2007 was 10% in men and 7% in women. In men, declines are predicted for stomach (-20%), leukemias (-11%), lung and prostate (-10%) and colorectal (-7%) cancers, and for stomach (-23%), leukemias (-12%), uterus and colorectum (-11%) and breast (-9%) in women. Almost stable rates are expected for pancreatic cancer (+2-3%) and increases for female lung cancer (+ 7%). Younger women show the greatest falls in breast cancer mortality rates in the EU (-17%), and declines are expected in all individual countries, except Poland. Conclusion: Apart for lung cancer in women and pancreatic cancer, continuing falls are expected in mortality from major cancers in the EU.