Risk analysis in the spillway of dam Oros by excess of influent flow

This paper presents the practical application of concepts, and some methods of risk analysis, to check the possibility of overcoming a water level of project in the spillway of dam Oros, by excess of influent flow. Also evaluated the empirical formulas contained in the original design. Due to the difficulty of obtaining design data from the dam, since the end of construction date of January, 11, 1961, we minimize the effects of some variables in the calculations, leading us to the consequent simplification of the scenario under study. For a better evaluation and characterization of the setting, some variables in the model such as water level, accumulation and flow of the spillway, had updated their data to June 28, 2011. We have demonstrated the importance of risk analysis for project design, construction and operation of large reservoirs, and the need for ongoing assessments of works of this nature.