Biological and Statistical Approaches for Modeling Exposure to Specific Trihalomethanes and Bladder Cancer Risk

Lifetime exposure to trihalomethanes (THM) has been associated with increased risk of bladder cancer. We explored methods of analyzing bladder cancer risk associated with 4 THM (chloroform, bromodichloromethane, dibromochloromethane, and bromoform) as surrogates for disinfection by-product (DBP) mixtures in a case-control study in Spain (1998-2001). Lifetime average concentrations of THM in the households of 686 incident bladder cancer cases and 750 matched hospital-based controls were calculated. Several exposure metrics were modeled through conditional logistic regression, including the following analyses: total THM (mu g/L), cytotoxicity-weighted sum of total THM (pmol/L), 4 THM in separate models, 4 THM in 1 model, chloroform and the sum of brominated THM in 1 model, and a principal-components analysis. THM composition, concentrations, and correlations varied between areas. The model for total THM was stable and showed increasing dose-response trends. Models for separate THM provided unstable estimates and inconsistent dose-response relationships. Risk estimation for specific THM is hampered by the varying composition of the mixture, correlation between species, and imprecision of historical estimates. Total THM (mu g/L) provided a proxy measure of DBPs that yielded the strongest dose-response relationship with bladder cancer risk. A variety of metrics and statistical approaches should be used to evaluate this association in other settings.