Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

Habitat modelling limitations – Puck Bay, Baltic Sea – a case study**This study represents a contribution to the project ‘Advanced Modelling Tool for Scenarios of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Support Decision Making (ECOSUPPORT)’, which has received funding from the EC’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007–2013, Grant 217246) in conjunction with BONUS, the joint Baltic Sea research and development programme, supported by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Grant 06/BONUS/2009). It also contributes to the Habitat Mapping project (‘Ecosystem approach to marine spatial planning – Polish Marine Areas and the Natura 2000 network’, PL 0078), supported by a grant from Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway through the EEA Financial Mechanism.

(2013) Jan Marcin Węsławski et al.   OCEANOLOGIA

Uncertainties in a Baltic Sea Food-Web Model Reveal Challenges for Future Projections

(2012) Susa Niiranen et al.   AMBIO

Guest Editorial

(2012) Marcus Reckermann   AMBIO

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

(2012) H. E. Markus Meier et al.   AMBIO

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

(2012) Brian R. MacKenzie et al.   AMBIO

Atmospheric Nutrient Input to the Baltic Sea from 1850 to 2006: A Reconstruction from Modeling Results and Historical Data

(2012) Tuija Ruoho-Airola et al.   AMBIO

ECOSUPPORT: A Pilot Study on Decision Support for Baltic Sea Environmental Management

(2012) H. E. Markus Meier et al.   AMBIO

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

(2012) Berit Arheimer et al.   AMBIO

Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006

(2012) Bo G. Gustafsson et al.   AMBIO

Modeling the combined impact of changing climate and changing nutrient loads on the Baltic Sea environment in an ensemble of transient simulations for 1961–2099

(2012) H. E. M. Meier et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling

(2012) M.T. Tomczak et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem—first results from multi-model ensemble simulations

(2012) H E Markus Meier et al.   Environmental Research Letters

Modeling the impact of reduced sea ice cover in future climate on the Baltic Sea biogeochemistry

(2012) K. Eilola et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Inconsistencies between Long-Term Trends in Storminess Derived from the 20CR Reanalysis and Observations

(2012) Oliver Krueger et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea

(2011) K. Eilola et al.   JOURNAL OF MARINE SYSTEMS

Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics**The work presented in this study was jointly funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS), and the European Commission within the projects ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modelling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making, ref. no. 08/381), AMBER (Assessment and Modelling Baltic Ecosystem Response, ref. no. 08/390) and INFLOW (Holocene saline water inflow changes into the Baltic Sea, ecosystem responses and future scenarios, ref. no. 2008–1885). All three projects are part of the BONUS+program (http://www.bonusportal.org).

(2011) H.E. Markus Meier et al.   OCEANOLOGIA

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

(2010) M. Lindegren et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

(2009) Ralf Döscher et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan – A regional programme of measures for the marine environment based on the Ecosystem Approach

(2009) Hermanni Backer et al.   MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN

Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

(2008) CHRISTIAN MÖLLMANN et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

The digital workshop: Exploring the use of interactive and immersive visualisation tools in participatory planning

(2008) Jonathan D. Salter et al.   JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

On the dynamics of oxygen, phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea; A model study

(2008) Kari Eilola et al.   JOURNAL OF MARINE SYSTEMS