Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Xuezhi Tan, Xinxin Wu, Zeqin Huang, Jianyu Fu, Xuejin Tan, Simin Deng, Yaxin Liu, Thian Yew Gan, Bingjun Liu
Summary: Precipitation whiplash, characterized by abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, is projected to increase by 2.56 +/- 0.16 times by the end of the 21st Century, with the most significant changes occurring in polar and monsoon regions. Changes in precipitation whiplash show a higher percentage change compared to total precipitation. Historical simulations reveal that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increase whiplash occurrences, while aerosol emissions reduce them. By 2079, anthropogenic greenhouse gases are projected to increase the risk of precipitation whiplash by 55 +/- 4%, driven by shifts in circulation patterns conducive to extreme precipitation.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jian Cao, Hao Wang, Bin Wang, Haikun Zhao, Chao Wang, Xiaowei Zhu
Summary: Due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, the summer monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere has significantly decreased during the historical period. Simulations show that anthropogenic aerosols are the main cause of this decrease, while greenhouse gases primarily affect surface warming. The results indicate that reducing aerosol emissions may rapidly recover the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
D. C. Ayantika, R. Krishnan, M. Singh, P. Swapna, N. Sandeep, A. G. Prajeesh, R. Vellore
Summary: The study found that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols have different impacts on monsoon precipitation, with aerosols enhancing surface radiation deficit, stabilizing the lower troposphere, leading to a slowdown in monsoonal winds and reduced precipitation.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Anitha Gera, Ankur Gupta, Ashis K. Mitra, Nagarjuna D. Rao, Imranali M. Momin, Madhavan N. Rajeeavan, Sean F. Milton, Gill M. Martin, Matthew J. Martin, Jennifer Waters, Daniel Lea
Summary: The study assesses the skill of the extended range prediction system (NERP) based on the Unified global coupled modelling system over India during the summer monsoon period. The model shows good prediction skill for rainfall anomaly forecasts in the short term, with moderate to good skill in some regions even in weeks 3-4. The model also accurately represents the variability of the monsoon seasonal cycle and the spatial distribution of summer monsoon rainfall peaks.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti, Dayana C. Souza, Paulo Y. Kubota, Caio A. S. Coelho, Silvio N. Figueroa, Jessica C. A. Baker
Summary: The Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model version 1.2 (BAM-v1.2) and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 (HadGEM3) are able to simulate the key features of the global monsoon system, including the spatial extent, main characteristics, and annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions. However, there are precipitation biases in regions affected by the systems, which can be attributed to vertical motion and moisture flux biases, as well as the lack of air-sea interaction.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Paromita Chakraborty, Abhijit Sarkar, R. Bhatla, R. Singh
Summary: The study investigated the quality of probabilistic precipitation and zonal wind forecasts from NEPS-G during the Indian summer monsoon period, revealing systematic and sensitivity issues. The forecasts showed a tendency for overestimation of low-level westerlies and easterly zonal wind flow, with the ensemble system slightly under-dispersive for longer forecast lead times.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2021)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Georgi S. Medvedev, Matthew S. Mizuhara, Andrew Phillips
Summary: In this study, we investigate a system of coupled phase oscillators driven by random intrinsic frequencies near a saddle-node on invariant circle bifurcation. The system undergoes a phase transition and changes its qualitative properties of collective dynamics under the variation of control parameters. By using Ott-Antonsen reduction and geometric techniques for ordinary differential equations, we identify heteroclinic bifurcation in a family of vector fields on a cylinder, which explains the change in collective dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that heteroclinic bifurcation separates two topologically distinct families of limit cycles: contractible limit cycles before bifurcation and noncontractible ones after bifurcation. Both families are stable in the model at hand.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Shih-Chieh Chien, Jennifer Adams Krumins
Summary: The amount of nitrogen stored in terrestrial soils, its nitrogen pool, moderates biogeochemical cycling affecting primary productivity, nitrogen pollution, and carbon budgets. However, our understanding of the global distribution of soil nitrogen with respect to anthropogenic activity and human land use remains unclear. This study conducted a meta-analysis and found that the driving mechanisms of nitrogen pools in agricultural and urban soils are more complex and often decoupled from climatic and soil factors compared to natural soils. The analysis suggests that agricultural soils act as a nitrogen source while urban soils act as a nitrogen sink.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Paul-Arthur Monerie, Jon Robson, Nick J. Dunstone, Andrew G. Turner
Summary: The study evaluated the skill of the Met Office's DePreSys3 prediction system in forecasting summer global monsoon precipitation at the seasonal time scale, showing significant skill in predicting summer monsoon precipitation, with higher skill in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere. Skill in predicting shifts in the atmospheric circulation is relatively low, with the dynamical component primarily contributing to global monsoon variability. The use of a large ensemble improves skill for predicting monsoon precipitation, but skill does not increase beyond 20 members.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Lyuyin Huang, Bin Zhao, Shuxiao Wang, Xing Chang, Zbigniew Klimont, Guanghan Huang, Haotian Zheng, Jiming Hao
Summary: This study establishes the first global anthropogenic full-volatility organic emission inventory, providing chemically speciated and volatility-binned emission factors. The findings reveal the significant emissions of various organic compounds and their sources, contributing to a better understanding of global air pollution and climate change.
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alexandre K. Magnan, Hans-Otto Poertner, Virginie K. E. Duvat, Matthias Garschagen, Valeria A. Guinder, Zinta Zommers, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Jean-Pierre Gattuso
Summary: The recent IPCC Special Reports provide an opportunity to understand a wide range of climate risks, with a scoring system developed to quantify global risk from climate change. By the end of the century, global climate risk is projected to substantially increase, with societal adaptation having the potential to reduce risk but not prevent it entirely. Different frameworks, including expert assessments from the IPCC, show a significant rise in global composite risk by 2100 under both low and high emissions scenarios.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology
Juan Zhang, Zhongli Zhu, Huiqing Hao
Summary: This study examined the impact of human activity and climate change on the magnitude, frequency, and minima of spring discharge using Niangziguan Springs in China as an example. The results showed that human activity accounted for a 32.38% decline in spring discharge, while climate variation contributed to a 6.93% decline. Wavelet analysis revealed that monsoon systems played a dominant role in affecting spring discharge, while climate teleconnections had a lesser impact. Additionally, human activity affected the periodicity of spring discharge at different time scales. The findings of this study have important implications for the management of spring discharge and water resources.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rouke Li, Delei Li, Nergui Nanding, Xuan Wang, Xuewei Fan, Yang Chen, Fangxing Tian, Simon F. B. Tett, Buwen Dong, Fraser C. Lott
Summary: Anthropogenic forcings have decreased the likelihood of heavy precipitation events in southern China, such as the March to July event in 2019, by about 60%.
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu, Yao Zhang
Summary: Increases in concurrent climate extremes globally and the dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes on each other have been observed. Historical human influence has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes, particularly in the tropics, but has not significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes. In the future, under high-emissions scenario SSP585, the concurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes will be substantially amplified in tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation scenario SSP126 can help alleviate the increase in concurrent climate extremes in these high-risk regions. The findings of this study will contribute to adaptation strategies for mitigating the impact of future climate extremes.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Pedro Jaureguiberry, Nicolas Titeux, Martin Wiemers, Diana E. Bowler, Luca Coscieme, Abigail S. Golden, Carlos A. Guerra, Ute Jacob, Yasuo Takahashi, Josef Settele, Sandra Diaz, Zsolt Molnar, Andy Purvis
Summary: The study reveals that land/sea use change is the dominant direct driver of recent biodiversity loss worldwide, ranking first; exploitation of natural resources ranks second, and pollution ranks third. Climate change and invasive alien species are of significantly less importance.
