Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars

Prediction and explanation in social systems

(2017) Jake M. Hofman et al.   SCIENCE

Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?

(2017) Lars-Erik Cederman et al.   SCIENCE

A three-degree horizon of peace in the military alliance network

(2017) Weihua Li et al.   Science Advances

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts

(2016) Pasquale Cirillo et al.   PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

Safe leads and lead changes in competitive team sports

(2015) A. Clauset et al.   PHYSICAL REVIEW E

Networks of military alliances, wars, and international trade

(2015) Matthew O. Jackson et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events

(2013) Aaron Clauset et al.   Annals of Applied Statistics

Did Warfare Among Ancestral Hunter-Gatherers Affect the Evolution of Human Social Behaviors?

(2009) S. Bowles   SCIENCE

Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data

(2009) Aaron Clauset et al.   SIAM REVIEW