Rapid Assessment of Adverse Drug Reactions by Statistical Solution of Gene Association Network

Adverse drug reaction (ADR) is a common clinical problem, sometimes accompanying with high risk of mortality and morbidity. It is also one of the major factors that lead to failure in new drug development. Unfortunately, most of current experimental and computational methods are unable to evaluate clinical safety of drug candidates in early drug discovery stage due to the very limited knowledge of molecular mechanisms underlying ADRs. Therefore, in this study, we proposed a novel naive Bayesian model for rapid assessment of clinical ADRs with frequency estimation. This model was constructed on a gene-ADR association network, which covered 611 US FDA approved drugs, 14,251 genes, and 1,254 distinct ADR terms. An average detection rate of 99.86 and 99.73 percent were achieved eventually in identification of known ADRs in internal test data set and external case analyses respectively. Moreover, a comparative analysis between the estimated frequencies of ADRs and their observed frequencies was undertaken. It is observed that these two frequencies have the similar distribution trend. These results suggest that the naive Bayesian model based on gene-ADR association network can serve as an efficient and economic tool in rapid ADRs assessment.