期刊
JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS
卷 13, 期 -, 页码 23-30出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/17513758.2018.1469792
关键词
Epidemics; final size estimates
资金
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada [RGPIN-2016-03706]
Early in a disease outbreak, it is important to be able to estimate the final size of the epidemic in order to assess needs for treatment and to be able to compare the effects of different treatment approaches. However, it is common for epidemics, especially of diseases considered dangerous, to grow much more slowly than expected. We suggest that by assuming behavioural changes in the face of an epidemic and heterogeneity of mixing in the population it is possible to obtain reasonable early estimates.
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