Article
Environmental Sciences
Maria Tirronen, Jochen Depestele, Anna Kuparinen
Summary: Marine populations often show significant variation in their productivity, including regime shifts. This study explores the role of food and climate as external drivers in recruitment regime shifts, while considering density-dependent mechanisms. The results demonstrate that biotic and abiotic drivers have substantial impacts on recruitment dynamics, in addition to spawning stock biomass.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Camilla Sguotti, Alexandra M. Bloecker, Leonie Faerber, Benjamin Blanz, Roland Cormier, Rabea Diekmann, Jonas Letschert, Henrike Rambo, Nicole Stollberg, Vanessa Stelzenmueller, Adrian C. Stier, Christian Mollmann
Summary: Human impacts can cause irreversible regime shifts in marine ecosystems, as seen in the North Sea ecosystem where fishing and warming have caused a previously undetected irreversible regime shift. The study highlights the importance of both local and global human impacts in driving significant ecosystem changes and suggests that adaptation is crucial in facing global climate change.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sam Zipper, Ilinca Popescu, Kyle Compare, Chi Zhang, Erin C. Seybold
Summary: Non-perennial rivers and streams are becoming more widespread, and the stability of streamflow in wet and dry conditions is unclear. An investigation in the Arkansas River (USA) revealed that groundwater levels are the primary control over the hydrological regime, and stabilizing feedbacks among upstream inflows, stream-aquifer interactions, climate, vegetation, and pumping create alternative wet and dry stable states.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Kai L. Kopecky, Adrian C. Stier, Russell J. Schmitt, Sally J. Holbrook, Holly V. Moeller
Summary: Standing dead structures of habitat-forming organisms can affect ecosystem recovery processes. A mathematical model was used to quantify the differential effects of structure-removing and structure-retaining disturbance events on the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Dead coral skeletons can diminish coral resilience by providing macroalgae refuge from herbivory, altering the underlying relationship between herbivory and coral cover.
Article
Plant Sciences
Haojie Su, Rong Wang, Yuhao Feng, Yanling Li, Yun Li, Jun Chen, Chi Xu, Shaopeng Wang, Jingyun Fang, Ping Xie
Summary: This study presents empirical evidence of critical regime shifts and hysteresis in a subtropical Chinese lake, showing the impacts of climate warming, eutrophication, and trophic cascade effects by fish stocking. Early warning signals were found detectable in both collapse and recovery trajectories, improving predictive ability. Management practices should focus on slowing down climate warming and weakening fish predation pressure to enhance nutrient reduction effectiveness in lake restoration efforts.
JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Management
Matthias Seifert, Canan Ulu, Sreyaa Guha
Summary: This paper investigates the probability judgments and pricing decisions of decision makers in unstable environments. The study finds that decision makers tend to underreact or overreact in their probability judgments and pricing decisions. This tendency is amplified when the decision maker's prior probability of a regime shift is low and dampened when the prior probability is high.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Cai John Tomos Ladd, Mollie Frances Duggan-Edwards, Jordi F. Pages, Martin Wiggers Skov
Summary: Research shows that saltmarsh loss in certain estuarine areas can be compensated by expansion in other areas when tidal channels shift position. This phenomenon of geomorphic compensation may also occur in other hydrological systems.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Biology
P. Catalina Chaparro-Pedraza
Summary: This study reveals that swift environmental changes can trigger regime shifts in ecological systems, and rapid evolutionary change driven by high trait variation helps reduce the sensitivity of ecosystems to the rate of environmental change. Management measures should therefore focus on mitigating the impacts of environmental change and safeguarding phenotypic diversity in ecosystems.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Michael D. Delong, James H. Thorp, Jeffrey R. Anderson
Summary: The study used carbon stable isotope ratios from museum specimens of fish, mussels, and snails over a timeline of 75+ years to determine if trophic structure of two hydrologically modified rivers changed between premodification and postmodification periods. An alternative state model following Scheffer's shallow lake model was developed, indicating regime shifts occurred during the postdam period in the lower Ohio River. This change was attributed to decreases in hydrological variability leading to a loss of resilience in both rivers due to hydrological modification.
RIVER RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Stephen G. Hesterberg, Kendal Jackson, Susan S. Bell
Summary: This study finds that the transition from salt marsh to mangrove is linked to the transition from oyster reef to mangrove through the spread of mangrove propagules. The transition is influenced by climate change as well as other non-climate factors. If the supply of propagules keeps up with predicted warming, subtropical estuaries will begin to transform by 2070. Measures such as restoring oyster reefs or removing mangrove seedlings could help slow down the impacts of climate change.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Engineering, Environmental
Dianneke van Wijk, Manqi Chang, Annette B. G. Janssen, Sven Teurlincx, Wolf M. Mooij
Summary: Worldwide, water quality managers aim for a state of clear, macrophyte-dominated shallow lakes rather than turbid, phytoplankton-dominated ones. However, the concept of critical turbidity has been neglected in contemporary water quality models. In this study, an innovative graphical and mathematical model called GPLake-M was developed, combining the theories of critical turbidity and resource competition mechanisms. The results provide insights into the regime shifts in shallow lakes and can serve as a starting point for further research and model development.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Arjen Pieter Luijendijk, Etienne Kras, Vasiliki Dagalaki, Robin Morelissen, Ibrahim Hoteit, Roshanka Ranasinghe
Summary: Coastal developments in Saudi Arabia are increasing, and human interventions have influenced shoreline behavior. The Red Sea coast is retreating, while the Gulf coast is prograding. Future shoreline projections indicate that a significant retreat is expected in large parts of the coastline. Effective adaptation strategies are needed to protect areas of ecological and economic value.
FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Dimitrios Damalas, Vassiliki Sgardeli, Paraskevas Vasilakopoulos, Georgios Tserpes, Christos Maravelias
Summary: The study found that the demersal resources of the Aegean Sea have undergone significant changes over the past sixty years due to climate change, with two climate-induced regime shifts occurring in the biological system. Environmental stressors exhibited increasing trends, and the stability landscape of the biological system showed three basins of attraction, indicating difficulty in returning to previous states.
ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Audrey Limoges, Sofia Ribeiro, Nicolas Van Nieuwenhove, Rebecca Jackson, Stephen Juggins, Xavier Crosta, Kaarina Weckstrom
Summary: The Pikialasorsuaq is an area of cultural and ecological significance that has been experiencing rapid warming and changes in its ice arch. A study on diatom community-level responses showed significant changes over the past 3800 years, with potential implications for the productivity and diversity of the marine food web. Future climate-induced alterations could disproportionately impact higher trophic levels and indigenous peoples, affecting global diversity.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Laura E. Garza-Diaz, Samuel Sandoval-Solis
Summary: River basins, as complex social-ecological systems, rely on natural flow regime and hydrologic variability. This study aims to determine the regime shifts, thresholds, and carrying capacity of the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo basin, and identifies multiple regime shifts and early warning signals in the transboundary basin.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Matthew W. Adamson, Jonathan H. P. Dawes, Alan Hastings, Frank M. Hilker
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
(2020)
Article
Ecology
Easton R. White, Marissa L. Baskett, Alan Hastings
Summary: Marine reserves play a crucial role in buffering populations against catastrophic events, with optimal spacing dependent on dispersal ability and disturbance regime. In the presence of catastrophes, larger spacing between reserves is needed to prevent extinction, especially when Allee effects interact with disturbances. Tradeoffs between conservation and fishing objectives are influenced by the occurrence of catastrophes, with intermediate disturbance levels requiring reserves to be spread out for increased population persistence and spillover benefits.
Article
Ecology
Nathan G. Marculis, Alan Hastings
Summary: Simple models have been widely used in theoretical ecology to understand population dynamics, with the Levins model serving as a seminal example for continuous-time metapopulation dynamics. Our study aims to develop a discrete-time metapopulation model using difference equations, focusing on colonization and extinction processes. Through our approach, we illustrate how properties of colonization and extinction functions can impact metapopulation dynamics, with the potential for complex behavior such as cyclic and chaotic dynamics in non-monotone models.
Article
Ecology
Alexander D. Meyer, Alan Hastings, John L. Largier
Summary: This study investigated the impact of vertical swimming behaviors on the dispersal of coastal marine invertebrate planktonic larvae. We found two successful categories of swimming behaviors, mean-onshore and mean-offshore, each advantageous for different types of species. This highlights the importance of considering the interaction of behavior with environmental structure and individual biology when studying dispersal in ecosystems.
Article
Ecology
Evan C. Johnson, Alan Hastings
Summary: The storage effect is a general explanation for coexistence in a variable environment. However, it is not well understood. This study provides a finer-grained definition of the storage effect by dividing its key condition into two parts and explains the phenomenon in more detail. Additionally, it suggests that the storage effect may be more common than previously thought, as it can arise through transgenerational plasticity and causal chains of environmental variables.
Article
Ecology
Evan C. Johnson, Alan Hastings, Chris Ray
Summary: This study found that population crashes are caused by an interaction between stochasticity and successive episodes of density dependence, helping to explain crashes in a broader range of environments. The research also showed that the interaction between nonlinearity and stochasticity can lead to chaotic population dynamics and a double-humped one-generation population map, suggesting the possibility of unexpected behavior in various systems.
Article
Ecology
J. Wilson White, Caren Barcelo, Alan Hastings, Louis W. Botsford
Summary: Understanding population responses to discrete 'pulsed' environmental disturbances is crucial for conservation and adaptive management. By analyzing single-species models, this study identified interspecific differences in recovery trajectories, with longevity playing a key role in determining both impact and recovery time when disturbances affected younger age classes, while immediate impact occurred when adult age-classes were affected. The formulation of the problem as a renewal equation and use of mathematical convolutions allowed for quantifying the effects of disturbances with different time courses on population resilience.
JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Evan C. Johnson, Alan Hastings
Summary: This article introduces a framework called modern coexistence theory, which can "measure coexistence" by partitioning invasion growth rates into coexistence mechanisms. The article compares five methods for calculating coexistence mechanisms and finds a suitable method for calculating coexistence mechanisms through conceptual arguments and case studies.
Article
Ecology
Robin R. R. Decker, Alan Hastings
Summary: Climate change and ecosystem engineering have interactive effects on the spread rates of plant populations. Sea-level rise can reverse the conditions that drive high rates of spatial spread and promote the spread of invasive ecosystem engineers.
THEORETICAL ECOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Biology
Kim Cuddington, Karen C. Abbott, Frederick R. Adler, Mehmet Aydeniz, Rene Dale, Louis J. Gross, Alan Hastings, Elizabeth A. Hobson, Vadim A. Karatayev, Alexander Killion, Aasakiran Madamanchi, Michelle L. Marraffini, Audrey L. McCombs, Widodo Samyono, Shin-Han Shiu, Karen H. Watanabe, Easton R. White
Summary: New graduate students in biology programs may lack the quantitative skills necessary for their research and professional careers. Revising instructional experiences to enhance both student confidence and quantitative skills may improve educational outcomes and professional success. Research suggests that addressing productive failure and ensuring effective mentoring may be the most effective routes to increasing both quantitative self-efficacy and skills.
Article
Ecology
Jorge Arroyo-Esquivel, Marissa L. Baskett, Meredith McPherson, Alan Hastings
Summary: In restoration ecology, the Field of Dreams hypothesis suggests that creating a suitable environment through restoration efforts can lead to the recovery of the ecosystem through natural processes. Partial restoration has been successful in both terrestrial and aquatic systems. However, the efficacy of a Field of Dreams approach depends on comparing it with more comprehensive restoration efforts. By studying temperate rocky reefs, we found that setting favorable initial conditions for recovery had a bigger impact on the rate than extending restoration efforts over a longer period of time. Therefore, partial restoration across multiple ecological scales can be more effective.
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Biology
Vahini Reddy Nareddy, Jonathan Machta, Karen Abbott, Shadisadat Esmaeili, Alan Hastings
Summary: Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics in the presence of noise is a significant challenge. We investigate how the level of detail in population estimates affects the ability to forecast phase changes in oscillation. Our findings show that including more observation states improves the forecast skill for phase shifts.
JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Gabriel Gellner, Kevin McCann, Alan Hastings
Summary: This study uses an inverse approach to investigate the relationship between diversity and stability. By comparing classic random matrix models with energetically constrained feasible models, it is found that the latter produces more stable high-diversity food webs. These energetically constrained webs show an increasing number of weak interactions, which can enhance local stability.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2023)
Article
Mathematics, Applied
Carter L. Johnson, Timothy J. Lewis, Robert Guy
Summary: The study of the nematode C. elegans locomotion reveals that adaptive behavior in undulatory forward swimming gait is a result of the interaction between neural modules through a combination of mechanical forces, neuronal coupling, and sensory feedback mechanisms, with gap-junctional coupling and proprioception playing key roles in gait adaptation.
SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
(2021)
Review
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Alan Hastings, Karen C. Abbott, Kim Cuddington, Tessa B. Francis, Ying-Cheng Lai, Andrew Morozov, Sergei Petrovskii, Mary Lou Zeeman
Summary: There is a growing recognition in ecology that systems can spend extended periods of time away from an asymptotic state, and understanding the role of stochasticity in creating ecological transients is essential. Stochasticity can interact with deterministic features to produce new dynamics and impact the lifetime of transients. Studying the interactions between stochastic and deterministic processes is crucial for understanding the outcomes of ecological dynamics.
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE
(2021)
