Radiologic Features of Small Pulmonary Nodules and Lung Cancer Risk in the National Lung Screening Trial: A Nested Case-Control Study

Purpose: To extract radiologic features from small pulmonary nodules (SPNs) that did not meet the original criteria for a positive screening test and identify features associated with lung cancer risk by using data and images from the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST). Materials and Methods: Radiologic features in SPNs in baseline low-dose computed tomography (CT) screening studies that did not meet NLST criteria to be considered a positive screening examination were extracted. SPNs were identified for 73 incident case patients who were given a diagnosis of lung cancer at either the first or second follow-up screening study and for 157 control subjects who had undergone three consecutive negative screening studies. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between radiologic features and lung cancer risk. All statistical tests were two sided. Results: Nine features were significantly different between case patients and control subjects. Backward elimination followed by bootstrap resampling identified a reduced model of highly informative radiologic features with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.932 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88, 0.96), a specificity of 92.38% (95% CI: 52.22%, 84.91%), and a sensitivity of 76.55% (95% CI: 87.50%, 95.35%) that included total emphysema score (odds ratio [OR] = 1.71; 95% CI: 1.39, 2.01), attachment to vessel (OR = 2.41; 95% CI: 0.99, 5.81), nodule location (OR = 3.25; 95% CI: 1.09, 8.55), border definition (OR = 7.56; 95% CI: 1.89, 30.8), and concavity (OR = 2.58; 95% CI: 0.89, 5.64). Conclusion: A set of clinically relevant radiologic features were identified that that can be easily scored in the clinical setting and may be of use to determine lung cancer risk among participants with SPNs. (C) RSNA, 2017