期刊
PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
卷 114, 期 -, 页码 271-278出版社
INST CHEMICAL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2018.01.002
关键词
Dynamic probability prediction; Blowout fire; System dynamics; Cost benefit analysis; Safety investment allocation; Blowout fire of offshore drilling platform
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51409260]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [17CX02062]
It is known that optimizing the investments on safety to reduce probabilities of blowout fire is very challenging due to the complexity of operational systems which involve varieties of potential contributors and ranges of safety measures. In this paper, a new method to evaluate blowout fire prevention and control measures is proposed in a cost effective manner. Firstly, a dynamic probability prediction model for blowout fire is proposed through the system dynamics (SD) method. The dynamic probability of blowout fire on offshore drilling platform is predicted according to the proposed model. Secondly, cost-benefit analysis of the corresponding safety measures is carried out using SD simulation via Vensim software. Thirdly, a case study of blowout fire probability prediction and the cost-benefit analysis of safety investments are demonstrated for some offshore drilling platform. The simulation results show that the predicted probability of blowout fire on offshore drilling platform increases from 2.41E-6 to 3.997E-6. The probability prediction formula of blowout fire is nonlinear fitted to obtain the intrinsic relationship between the probability of blowout fire and time. The case study shows that the built cost-benefit analysis model can be used to optimize the allocation of safety investments. (C) 2018 Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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