Runoff to boreal lakes linked to land cover, watershed morphology and permafrost thaw: a 9-year isotope mass balance assessment

Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen were measured in water samples collected annually from a representative suite of 50 lakes in northeastern Alberta over a 9-year period and are interpreted using a steady-state isotope mass balance model to determine water yield and runoff ratios for the lake watersheds and residence time of the lakes. This isotopic perspective on hydrology of the region provides new insight into the role of land cover, watershed morphometry, climatic drivers and permafrost thaw on lakes. Bog cover, permafrost and presence of thaw features in bogs are found to be the dominant hydrologic drivers, although morphometric properties such as elevation, lake area and drainage basin area are also influential. In addition to quantifying the hydrologic fluxes, the analysis establishes contrasting conditions in more southerly lakes, located in the Stony Mountains and west of Fort McMurray, as compared with more northerly sites in the Birch Mountains, Caribou Mountains and northeast of Fort McMurray, mainly because of contributions from thawing permafrost at the northerly sites. Distinct hydrologic conditions are also noted for Shield systems north of Lake Athabasca where bogs and permafrost are absent. While permafrost thaw is not directly labelled by oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition, isotope mass balance calculations suggest that contributions of up to several hundred millimetres per year are occurring in 14 of the 50 lake watersheds under study. Several of these lakes have water yields in excess of precipitation in some years, and regional groups of lakes display significant correlations between water yield and percentage of bogs that have collapsed. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.