Ecological drivers of Hepacivirus infection in a neotropical rodent inhabiting landscapes with various degrees of human environmental change

Anthropogenic environmental change can impact community and population traits such as species diversity and population densities, which have been shown to influence the prevalence of viruses in wildlife reservoirs. In particular, host species resilient to changes in their natural habitat may increase in numbers, which in turn can affect the prevalence of directly transmitted viruses. We have carried out a survey of small mammal communities in three tropical landscapes differing in their degree of environmental change in Central Panama and investigated the effects of community changes on Hepacivirus prevalence. The modification of continuous habitat into partly connected or isolated habitat patches during the past century was linked to changes in species diversity and species assemblages, which was further associated with shifts in the abundance of generalist marsupial (Didelphis marsupialis, Philander opossum) and rodent (Proechimys semispinosus) species. The latter has become dominant in isolated habitat patches and was the only identified Hepacivirus host in our study system. Our analyses suggest that, in addition to the effects of host age and sex, host population density in interaction with sex ratio is a crucial predictor of infection probability. Although we found no significant relationships between species diversity per se and infection probability, the lowest prevalence detected in the landscape with the highest species diversity indicates that shifts in species assemblages (e.g. changes in the presence and abundance of marsupial predators) impact the host's intraspecific contact rates, the probability of virus transmission and, thus, the virus prevalence. Our study additionally provides important data on the influence of human-induced landscape changes on infection probability and, therefore, on virus prevalence in wildlife and emphasizes the importance of a landscape-scale approach with concomitant consideration of the complex interactions between ecological factors.