期刊
MALARIA JOURNAL
卷 17, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
BMC
DOI: 10.1186/s12936-018-2397-z
关键词
Malaria; Climate change; Metapopulation; Stochastic; Ecohydrology
资金
- Computational Science and Engineering (CSE) fellowship
- NSF [CBET1209402, ACI 1261582, EAR 1331906, EAR 1417444]
Background: The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. In addition, the dispersal of Anopheles mosquitoes is a key determinant that affects the persistence and dynamics of malaria. Simple, lumped-population models of malaria prevalence have been insufficient for predicting the complex responses of malaria to environmental changes. Methods and results: A stochastic lattice-based model that couples a mosquito dispersal and a susceptibleexposed- infected-recovered epidemics model was developed for predicting the dynamics of malaria in heterogeneous environments. The Ito approximation of stochastic integrals with respect to Brownian motion was used to derive a model of stochastic differential equations. The results show that stochastic equations that capture uncertainties in the life cycle of mosquitoes and interactions among vectors, parasites, and hosts provide a mechanism for the disruptions of malaria. Finally, model simulations for a case study in the rural area of Kilifi county, Kenya are presented. Conclusions: A stochastic lattice-based integrated malaria model has been developed. The applicability of the model for capturing the climate-driven hydrologic factors and demographic variability on malaria transmission has been demonstrated.
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