Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Simon S. Schnyder, John Molina, Ryoichi Yamamoto, Matthew Turner
Summary: During epidemics, people may decrease their social and economic activities to lower the risk of infection. The decision-making process for social distancing strategies depends on information about the epidemic course and the expected end, such as vaccination timing. Optimal decisions are challenging due to incomplete and uncertain information. In this study, we demonstrate how optimal decision-making is influenced by information about vaccination timing in a differential game that considers individual decision-making and a probability distribution for vaccine arrival. We predict that social distancing will be stronger when vaccination is expected earlier and when the probability distribution is more sharply peaked. Equilibrium social distancing significantly deviates from the no-vaccination equilibrium only if the vaccine is expected to arrive before the epidemic would naturally end. We show how the probability distribution of vaccination time acts as a generalized form of discounting, with exponential vaccination time distribution corresponding to regular exponential discounting.
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Tianbo An, Jingrui Wang, Bowen Zhou, Xing Jin, Jian Zhao, Guanghai Cui
Summary: This study proposes a novel utility model of the vaccination game, considering the influence of strategy conformity on individual decision-making. The findings reveal that moderate strategy conformity and a high herd immunity threshold have a significant positive effect on promoting vaccination behavior when the initial vaccination fraction is low. For a high initial vaccination fraction, strong strategy conformity and high herd immunity threshold are more conducive to encouraging vaccination behavior.
FRONTIERS IN PHYSICS
(2022)
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Wenjing Wang, Juanjuan Xu, Huanshui Zhang
Summary: This paper investigates the exact controllability of forward and backward stochastic difference systems with multiplicative noise. By transforming the system into an equivalent backward stochastic difference equation, the necessary and sufficient Gramian matrix criterion and Rank criterion for the exact controllability of the system are derived.
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Xueyu Meng, Jianhong Lin, Yufei Fan, Fujuan Gao, Enrico Maria Fenoaltea, Zhiqiang Cai, Shubin Si
Summary: In this study, a coupled disease-vaccination behavior dynamic model is introduced to investigate the coevolution of individual vaccination strategies and infection spreading. The study finds that sharing information about the consequences of infection and vaccination with the entire population is beneficial in reducing the final epidemic size.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2023)
Article
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Jianwei Wang, Wenshu Xu, Wei Chen, Fengyuan Yu, Jialu He
Summary: Vaccination decisions are influenced by individual benefits and the behavior of others; fast information transmission on social media expands the scope of imitation; information sharing can inhibit individual vaccination decisions to some extent, but overall beneficial for reducing the scale of disease spreading in society.
PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
(2021)
Article
Mathematics
Li Chen, Peipei Zhou, Hua Xiao
Summary: In this paper, the authors study a Stackelberg game with controlled systems described by backward stochastic differential delayed equations (BSDDEs). They introduce a new adjoint equation and establish the sufficient verification theorem for the leader and follower's optimal strategies in a general case. They also focus on a linear-quadratic (LQ) backward Stackelberg game with delay and present the backward Stackelberg equilibrium using the generalized fully coupled anticipated forward-backward stochastic differential delayed equation (AFBSDDE). The unique solvability of the AFBSDDE is obtained using the continuation method. Theoretical results are applied to the pension fund problem with delay effect.
Article
Engineering, Industrial
Dan-Yi Wang, Xueqing Wang
Summary: This study investigates the complementary effect between an inspection mechanism and a reputation system in deterring opportunistic claims in construction projects. It combines signaling game theory with reputation theory to embed the problem of inspection mechanism design into a broader socio-economic framework.
ENGINEERING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECTURAL MANAGEMENT
(2023)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Gayathri Vivekanandhan, Mahdi Nourian Zavareh, Hayder Natiq, Fahimeh Nazarimehr, Karthikeyan Rajagopal, Milan Svetec
Summary: An epidemic model for spreading COVID-19 is presented in this study. The model takes into account the birth and death rates in the dynamics of spreading COVID-19 and explains the dynamics in two phases. The study shows that changing parameters such as vaccination efficiency and cost, defense against contagious, and birth and death rates can alter the speed and final size of the pandemic.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Donggyun Ku, Gahyun Kim, Kyong Ran Peck, In Kwon Park, Rakwoo Chang, Donghan Kim, Seungjae Lee
Summary: Repeated vaccinations are necessary to achieve endemic phases, but individuals may hesitate to get vaccinated due to potential side effects. However, repeated vaccinations can lead to avoidance, impeding the establishment of endemic phases. Game theory and simulations show that a vaccination rate greater than 89% is required to achieve endemic phases.
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
(2023)
Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Giulia de Meijere, Claudio Castellano
Summary: Isolating asymptomatic infected individuals through contact tracing is a traditional method, but it has limited impact on the epidemic threshold and is influenced by imperfect adherence and delays. Through analysis and simulation, we have derived the method to calculate the epidemic threshold and quantified the effects of imperfect adherence and incentivizing measures on disease control.
Article
Computer Science, Information Systems
Xiao-Jie Li, Cong Li, Xiang Li
Summary: This study integrates the information-epidemic spreading process into vaccination dynamics and explores the impact of information dissemination on vaccination. The factors influencing vaccination decision-making include vaccination cost, network topology, and the stage of system evolution.
SCIENCE CHINA-INFORMATION SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Itsuki Nishimura, Md Rajib Arefin, Yuichi Tatsukawa, Shinobu Utsumi, Md. Anowar Hossain, Jun Tanimoto
Summary: A new SEIRS-based ODE model is developed, considering asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, hospitalized and immune states, as well as a time-variable vaccination rate defined by a behavior model. Social Efficiency Deficit (SED) is employed to quantify the occurrence of social dilemma behind the model dynamics. Numerical results suggest that the presence of social dilemma depends on the fraction of asymptomatic infected individuals, the discount ratio of infected force, vaccination cost, and immunity waning rate. The behavior model may cause a slight social dilemma even in disease-free region (R0 < 1), while a relatively strong social dilemma is indicated when the behavior model results in fewer vaccinated individuals than the social optimal state requires for disease remission.
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
(2023)
Article
Business
Yichao Yuan, Tiaojun Xiao
Summary: "The decoy strategy for bundling is an important marketing option that leverages consumers' reference price effect. This study develops a game-theoretic model to analyze the joint decisions on pricing and decoy strategies in a supply chain. The findings reveal that both the retailer and manufacturer benefit from consumers' low reference price effect under both decoy strategies, while the high reference price effect negatively impacts their profits."
JOURNAL OF RETAILING AND CONSUMER SERVICES
(2022)
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Huanjun Zhang
Summary: This paper focuses on a mixed optimal control problem driven by forward-backward stochastic differential equation, discussing necessary and sufficient conditions, as well as solving a linear-quadratic mixed optimal control problem. The theoretical results are applied to solve a problem of information security investment and cyber insurance.
OPTIMAL CONTROL APPLICATIONS & METHODS
(2021)
Article
Mathematical & Computational Biology
Kelu Li, Junyuan Yang, Xuezhi Li
Summary: This paper proposes a novel model to study the co-evolution of coinfection and voluntary vaccination strategies. Through numerical analysis, it is found that increasing vaccine effectiveness and decreasing transmission rate effectively suppress disease prevalence, and the strategy-based risk assessment rule is more effective than the individual-based rule.
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
(2022)
Article
Biology
Iain Hunter, Raz Leib
Summary: Natural movement is related to health, but it is difficult to measure. Existing methods cannot capture the full range of natural movement. Comparing movement across different species helps identify common biomechanical and computational principles. Developing a system to quantify movement in freely moving animals in natural environments and relating it to life quality is crucial. This study proposes a theoretical framework based on movement ability and validates it in Drosophila.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Andy Gardner
Summary: Fisher's geometric model is a useful tool for predicting key properties of Darwinian adaptation, and here it is applied to predict differences between the evolution of altruistic versus nonsocial phenotypes. The results suggest that the effect size maximizing probability of fixation is smaller in the context of altruism and larger in the context of nonsocial phenotypes, leading to lower overall probability of fixation for altruism and higher overall probability of fixation for nonsocial phenotypes.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Thomas F. Pak, Joe Pitt-Francis, Ruth E. Baker
Summary: Cell competition is a process where cells interact in multicellular organisms to determine a winner or loser status, with loser cells being eliminated through programmed cell death. The winner cells then populate the tissue. The outcome of cell competition is context-dependent, as the same cell type can win or lose depending on the competing cell type. This paper proposes a mathematical framework to study the emergence of winner or loser status, highlighting the role of active cell death and identifying the factors that drive cell competition in a cell-based modeling context.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Haruto Tomizuka, Yuuya Tachiki
Summary: Batesian mimicry is a strategy in which palatable prey species resemble unpalatable prey species to avoid predation. The evolution of this mimicry plays a crucial role in protecting the unpalatable species from extinction.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Jason W. Olejarz, Martin A. Nowak
Summary: Gene drive technology shows potential for population control, but its release may have unpredictable consequences. The study suggests that the failure of suppression is a natural outcome, and there are complex dynamics among wild populations.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Hamid Ravaee, Mohammad Hossein Manshaei, Mehran Safayani, Javad Salimi Sartakhti
Summary: Gene expression analysis is valuable for cancer classification and phenotype identification. IP3G, based on Generative Adversarial Networks, enhances gene expression data and discovers phenotypes in an unsupervised manner. By converting gene expression profiles into images and utilizing IP3G, new phenotype profiles can be generated, improving classification accuracy.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Beatrix Rahnsch, Leila Taghizadeh
Summary: This study forecasts the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany using a network-based inference method and compares it with other approaches. The results show that the network-inference based approach outperforms other methods in short-to mid-term predictions, even with limited information about the new disease. Furthermore, predictions based on the estimation of the reproduction number in Germany can yield more reliable results with increasing data availability, but still cannot surpass the network-inference based algorithm.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Rongsheng Huang, Qiaojun Situ, Jinzhi Lei
Summary: Maintaining tissue homeostasis requires appropriate regulation of stem cell differentiation. Random inheritance of epigenetic states plays a pivotal role in stem cell differentiation. This computational model provides valuable insights into the intricate mechanism governing stem cell differentiation and cell reprogramming, offering a promising path for enhancing the field of regenerative medicine.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Patrick Vincent N. Lubenia, Eduardo R. Mendoza, Angelyn R. Lao
Summary: This study compares insulin signaling in healthy and type 2 diabetes states using reaction network analysis. The results show similarities and differences between the two conditions, providing insights into the mechanisms of insulin resistance, including the involvement of other complexes, less restrictive interplay between species, and loss of concentration robustness in GLUT4.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Nuverah Mohsin, Heiko Enderling, Renee Brady-Nicholls, Mohammad U. Zahid
Summary: Mathematical modeling is crucial in understanding radiobiology and designing treatment approaches in radiotherapy for cancer. This study compares three tumor volume dynamics models and analyzes the implications of model selection. A new metric, the point of maximum reduction of tumor volume (MRV), is introduced to quantify the impact of radiotherapy. The results emphasize the importance of caution in selecting models of response to radiotherapy due to the artifacts imposed by each model.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)
Article
Biology
Armindo Salvador
Summary: Michael Savageau's Biochemical Systems Analysis papers have had a significant impact on Systems Biology, generating core concepts and tools. This article provides a brief summary of these papers and discusses the most relevant developments in Biochemical Systems Theory since their publication.
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
(2024)