期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 42, 期 24, 页码 10689-10695出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066929
关键词
discharge; climate oscillations; ENSO; PDO; NAO; AAO
资金
- NWO [GO-AO/30]
- NWO Rubicon [825.15.003]
- JSPS [2014-878]
Long-term hydrological forecasts are important to increase our resilience and preparedness to extreme hydrological events. The skill in these forecasts is still limited due to large uncertainties inherent in hydrological models and poor predictability of long-term meteorological conditions. Here we show that strong (lagged) correlations exist between four different major climate oscillation modes and modeled and observed discharge anomalies over a 100year period. The strongest correlations are found between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation signal and river discharge anomalies all year round, while North Atlantic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation time series are strongly correlated with winter discharge anomalies. The correlation signal is significant for periods up to 5years for some regions, indicating a high added value of this information for long-term hydrological forecasting. The results suggest that long-term hydrological forecasting could be significantly improved by including the climate oscillation signals and thus improve our preparedness for hydrological extremes in the near future.
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