Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Walker Raymond Lee, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz
Summary: Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering focused on the Arctic in spring can efficiently reduce the impacts of global warming by reflecting more sunlight, restoring more sea ice, and causing less negative effects like ozone loss and stratospheric heating compared to year-round geoengineering.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Melinda A. Webster, Stephen G. Warren
Summary: Increasing the albedo of Arctic sea ice by spreading hollow glass microspheres (HGMs) may not achieve the desired outcome and could instead warm the Arctic climate and accelerate sea-ice loss. Manufacturing non-absorbing HGMs and distributing them in May could help cool the climate.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Walker Raymond Lee, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Yating Chen, John C. Moore, Gunter Leguy, David M. Lawrence, David A. Bailey
Summary: This study simulates two Arctic-focused stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) strategies and finds that they can preserve the Arctic region, including Arctic sea ice, permafrost, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. However, focusing on the Arctic also introduces complications such as the impact on carbon uptake, heat transport, precipitation patterns, and ecosystem effects.
Review
Environmental Sciences
Alistair Duffey, Peter Irvine, Michel Tsamados, Julienne Stroeve
Summary: Solar geoengineering, such as stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), aims to mitigate climate change by reflecting sunlight away. This review examines the impacts of SAI on polar climate and cryosphere, emphasizing the need for future research in these areas. Utilizing SAI could cool and stabilize the polar regions under future warming scenarios, but there may be limitations in preventing winter-time polar climate changes and sea-level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet. Other solar geoengineering proposals targeting the poles, such as marine cloud brightening and cirrus cloud thinning, require further investigation to determine their effectiveness. A robust understanding of solar geoengineering's consequences in the polar regions is crucial for informing climate policy.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
K. L. Confer, L. Jaegle, G. E. Liston, S. Sharma, V. Nandan, J. Yackel, M. Ewert, H. M. Horowitz
Summary: We studied the effects of changing Arctic sea ice conditions on sea salt aerosols (SSA) generated by oceanic wave-breaking and wind-lofted salty blowing snow on sea ice. We found that the surface mass concentrations of pan-Arctic SSA have increased during both the cold and warm seasons. These changes in SSA concentrations could have significant impacts on bromine explosions and Arctic climate feedbacks.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Seferian, Simone Tilmes
Summary: Solar geoengineering has gained increasing attention as a potential temporary solution to counteract global warming. Studies have shown that different generations of models exhibit consistent climate responses to global solar dimming.
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ursula A. Jongebloed, Andrew J. Schauer, Shohei Hattori, Jihong Cole-Dai, Carleigh G. Larrick, Sara Salimi, Shana R. Edouard, Lei Geng, Becky Alexander
Summary: This study quantifies the contribution of anthropogenic sulfur emissions to sulfate in a Greenland ice core. Using sulfur isotopes, the researchers were able to separate anthropogenic sulfate from natural sources and observed changes in anthropogenic sulfate concentration over time. These findings are important for evaluating the impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols on climate change.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Shuhui Zhao, Jinpei Yan, Qi Lin, Lei Yao, Keyhong Park, Jinyoung Jung, Liqi Chen, Suqing Xu, Meiping Sun, Shanshan Wang, Hang Yang, Jun Shi, Miming Zhang, Heng Sun
Summary: The changes of water soluble ions in aerosol particles during sea fog events were studied. Sea salt ions increased before the occurrence of fog and decreased substantially after fog formation, while non-sea salt sulfate ions remained high during the fog processes. Sea salt particles were more likely to serve as condensation nuclei for fog and could be more effectively removed by sea fog than non-sea salt sulfate particles.
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaoyu Sun, Tingting Lv, Qizhen Sun, Zhuoming Ding, Hui Shen, Yi Gao, Yawen He, Min Fu, Chunhua Li
Summary: The satellite-derived sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic over the past 44 years (1979-2022) reveals the details and new trends in polar sea ice coverage changes. The reduction of Arctic sea ice extent has accelerated since 2004, and the Arctic Ocean may experience an ice-free period around 2060. The Antarctic sea ice extent has shifted from slow growth to rapid decrease since 2014, reaching a historical minimum in 2022. The patterns of sea ice extent change differ slightly between the Arctic and Antarctic.
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Yan Sun, Yufang Ye, Shaoyin Wang, Chong Liu, Zhuoqi Chen, Xiao Cheng
Summary: Passive microwave (PM) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations are essential for sea-ice cover information. Fusion of PM and SAR data can improve accuracy in marginal ice zones and melting seasons. A comprehensive comparison of PM and SAR ice cover products is needed for better data fusion.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON GEOSCIENCE AND REMOTE SENSING
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
Victoria Hill, Bonnie Light, Michael Steele, Andrew Lowy Sybrandy
Summary: Novel observations were collected on the seasonal evolution of an ice algal bloom on the Chukchi shelf using two autonomous buoys. The differences in ice algae biomass under each buoy were driven by variations in snow thickness, with nutrients being limiting at the low snow site and light being limiting at the high snow site.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Yunhe Wang, Xiaojun Yuan, Haibo Bi, Yibin Ren, Yu Liang, Cuihua Li, Xiaofeng Li
Summary: The study developed a linear Markov model for the seasonal prediction of sea ice thickness (SIT). The model performed better in the cold season and up to 12 months in advance in the Arctic basin. The model skill remained high even after removing trends and the upper-ocean heat content (OHC) was found to contribute more to SIT prediction skill than other variables.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Oceanography
D. G. Babb, R. J. Galley, S. Kirillov, J. C. Landy, S. E. L. Howell, J. C. Stroeve, W. Meier, J. K. Ehn, D. G. Barber
Summary: The loss of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has occurred primarily through two stepwise reductions: in 1989 and in 2006-2008. The first reduction was due to high export of multiyear ice, while the second reduction was a result of both high export and melt, as well as limited replenishment of multiyear ice. Although currently stable, reduced retention of older multiyear ice has led to a younger and thinner multiyear ice pack, potentially setting the stage for another reduction.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Bing Qing Huang, Xiao-Ming Li
Summary: This study investigates the attenuation of ocean waves in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in Svalbard and Greenland using spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar. The results show that the attenuation rate is significantly related to wave height and peak wave period. It is found that waves decay faster in areas with thicker ice. Comparing with previous studies, the research reveals a lower attenuation rate, indicating that waves are becoming less attenuated by ice in the Arctic.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Claire L. Parkinson, Nicolo E. DiGirolamo
Summary: The satellite dataset spanning 42 years from 1979 to 2020 reveals recent losses in sea ice coverage in both the Arctic and Antarctic, with the Arctic experiencing record low sea ice extents while the Antarctic has seen record lows since 2015. The data also shows that globally, every calendar month has recorded a new monthly record low within the past 5 years, indicating a rapid decline in global sea ice coverage.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Myles R. Allen, Glen P. Peters, Keith P. Shine, Christian Azar, Paul Balcombe, Olivier Boucher, Michelle Cain, Philippe Ciais, William Collins, Piers M. Forster, Dave J. Frame, Pierre Friedlingstein, Claire Fyson, Thomas Gasser, Bill Hare, Stuart Jenkins, Steven P. Hamburg, Daniel J. A. Johansson, John Lynch, Adrian Macey, Johannes Morfeldt, Alexander Nauels, Ilissa Ocko, Michael Oppenheimer, Stephen W. Pacala, Raymond Pierrehumbert, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl F. Schleussner, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Stephen M. Smith, Katsumasa Tanaka
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
C. E. Birch, L. S. Jackson, D. L. Finney, J. M. Marsham, R. A. Stratton, S. Tucker, S. Chapman, C. A. Senior, R. J. Keane, F. Guichard, E. J. Kendon
Summary: This study assesses the future change in dry and humid heatwaves in Africa using climate model simulations. The convective-scale simulation outperforms the parameterized simulation in representing humid heatwaves. Both simulations predict significant increases in the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves by 2100. Dry heatwaves are associated with low rainfall and increased surface heating, while humid heatwaves are mainly controlled by increased humidity, rainfall, and evaporation. The convective-scale model shows a higher future change in humid heatwaves compared to the parameterized model.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Lawrence S. Jackson, John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Declan L. Finney, Rory G. J. Fitzpatrick, David P. Rowell, Rachel A. Stratton, Simon Tucker
Summary: This study investigates the impact of explicit convection on climate change in the central West African Sahel using a pan-African convection-permitting simulation. The results show that explicit convection has multiple-scale effects on West African monsoon processes compared to parameterized convection. Under climate change, explicit convection leads to a shift in the West African monsoon and a weakening of the Hadley circulation. The findings highlight the limitations of parameterized convection and demonstrate the value of explicit convection simulations for climate modeling and policy-making.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Gunnar Myhre, Bjorn Samset, Piers M. Forster, Oivind Hodnebrog, Marit Sandstad, Christian W. Mohr, Jana Sillmann, Camilla W. Stjern, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Trond Iversen, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevag, Ryan Kramer, Longbo Liu, Johannes Muelmenstaedt, Dirk Olivie, Johannes Quaas, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Chris Smith, Philip Stier, Tao Tang, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Duncan Watson-Parris
Summary: This article reports the main scientific values and results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project. The simulations of these models enhance our understanding of the impact of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and incoming solar radiation on the Earth's radiation balance and climate response, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation changes. The article also provides instructions on how to extract files from the dataset.
Article
Agronomy
Emma W. Littleton, Anita Shepherd, Anna B. Harper, Astley F. S. Hastings, Naomi E. Vaughan, Jonathan Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Timothy M. Lenton
Summary: This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of large-scale bioenergy by contrasting the results of three different types of models under the same mitigation scenario. The results highlight the uncertainty in rapidly scaling-up biomass energy supply, especially in dry tropical climates and in regions where future climate change could result in drier conditions. These findings have important policy implications for limiting global warming to 'well below 2 degrees C'.
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY BIOENERGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
L. S. Jackson, A. C. Maycock, T. Andrews, H. -B. Fredriksen, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of a two-layer energy balance model in emulating temperature projections from climate models. The researchers find large emulation errors, significant differences between models, forcing scenarios, and time periods. Errors arise in emulating temperature response to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, and time-varying or state dependent feedbacks may reduce prediction errors. Rigorous out-of-sample evaluation is necessary to characterize emulator performance.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Z. Nicholls, M. Meinshausen, J. Lewis, C. J. Smith, P. M. Forster, J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. Rogelj, J. S. Kikstra, K. Riahi, E. Byers
Summary: The IPCC's assessment of emission reduction targets and timing of net-zero emissions relies on scenario databases. Updates between the SR1.5 and AR6 reports are influenced by various factors, and this study focuses on one factor: the Earth System Model emulators. The study finds that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent with those made by the emulators used in SR1.5, with a difference of within 0.1 degrees Celsius.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Camilla W. Stjern, Piers M. Forster, Hailing Jia, Caroline Jouan, Matthew R. Kasoar, Gunnar Myhre, Dirk Olivie, Johannes Quaas, Bjorn H. Samset, Maria Sand, Toshihiro Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Christopher D. Wells
Summary: In this study, the response of key climate quantities to changes in greenhouse gases or aerosols is investigated using six global climate models. The results show that ocean temperature changes become evident after a couple of months, while rapid reductions in precipitation occur instantly and stabilize within a few days. The magnitude of precipitation response gradually increases for carbon dioxide and sulfate, and switches from negative to positive after 2 years for carbon dioxide. Rapid cloud adjustments are typically established within the first 24 hours, and the geographical pattern of cloud change is present after the first year. Overall, our work highlights the similarity of major processes and responses simulated by current global models, indicating the robustness of simulated responses to historical and future forcing.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Katherine A. Crichton, Jamie D. Wilson, Andy Ridgwell, Flavia Boscolo-Galazzo, Eleanor H. John, Bridget S. Wade, Paul N. Pearson
Summary: Paleontological reconstructions show that plankton in the deep-dwelling 'twilight zone' during warm periods of the last 66 million years were less abundant and diverse, and lived closer to the surface. This is due to temperature's effect on the rate of organic matter breakdown, which is faster at warmer temperatures. Our study using an Earth system model reveals that anthropogenic warming could have significant impacts on carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology, leading to widespread ecological disruption by 2100 without strong emissions mitigation.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Yuyang Wu, Ying Cui, Daoliang Chu, Haijun Song, Jinnan Tong, Jacopo Dal Corso, Andy Ridgwell
Summary: By incorporating reconstructions of atmospheric PCO2 and carbonate δ13C into an Earth system model, this study reveals that the source and rate of carbon emissions during the end-Permian mass extinction (EPME) changed over time, transitioning from a slower emission rate with a thermogenic carbon isotopic signature to a faster emission rate with a heavier, more mantle-dominated volcanic source. This finding is supported by geochemical proxy records. The study also suggests that feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystem disturbances contributed to the warming and severity of marine extinctions during the EPME.
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Alexandre Pohl, Richard G. Stockey, Xu Dai, Ryan Yohler, Guillaume Le Hir, Dominik Huelse, Arnaud Brayard, Seth Finnegan, Andy Ridgwell
Summary: The study finds that during the Early Paleozoic, climate and continental configuration led to a much higher extinction susceptibility compared to other periods in the Phanerozoic. This higher susceptibility is mainly due to the limited geographical range of marine organisms, and it is not necessarily linked to increasing oxygenation.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, Piers M. Forster
Summary: The regional climate impacts of future emissions scenarios can be estimated by combining Earth system model simulations with a linear pattern scaling model. The study used MESMER to emulate the regional pattern of the surface temperature response based on historical single-forcer and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway simulations. The results highlight the limitations of linear pattern scaling for strong mitigation pathways and provide guidance for selecting predictor scenarios and introducing other dependent variables in pattern scaling models.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurelien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jose M. Gutierrez, Johannes Guetschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Panmao Zhai
Summary: IPCC assessments are a trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations, but the time gap between report cycles creates an information gap. To fill this gap, we compile monitoring datasets based on IPCC report methods to provide annually updated reliable global climate indicators.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiaochao Yu, Hua Zhang, Bing Xie, Piers M. Forster
Summary: Our study examines the effect of emission reductions on precipitation and finds that reducing aerosol emissions increases precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions decreases precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous emissions reductions lead to an enhanced precipitation contrast between hemispheres, and more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation policies are necessary to counteract aerosol-induced warming. This study is important for understanding climate change and informing adaptation policies.