Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
E. Biondini, D. A. Rhoades, P. Gasperini
Summary: This article presents a study on earthquake prediction in Italy using the EEPAS forecasting model. By comparing different software codes and optimizing parameters, it is found that the EEPAS model has stronger predictive power in longer time intervals (6 months to 10 years).
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
P. Gasperini, E. Biondini, B. Lolli, A. Petruccelli, G. Vannucci
Summary: The study computed and predicted the relative frequencies of potentially destructive main shocks following strong shocks in Italy, demonstrating the effectiveness of the forecasting algorithm.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Yevgeniy Kovchegov, Ilya Zaliapin, Yehuda Ben-Zion
Summary: This study proposes a theoretical modelling framework for earthquake occurrence and clustering based on a family of invariant Galton-Watson (IGW) stochastic branching processes. The analysis of observed seismicity in southern California demonstrates that the IGW model provides a close fit to the observed earthquake clusters.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Marcus Herrmann, Warner Marzocchi
Summary: An ensemble model combines forecasts from different models or different versions of the same model into a single forecast. Previous methods usually weighted forecasts equally or based on individual skill. This study presents a more meaningful strategy by obtaining weights that maximize the skill of the ensemble. The approach uses multivariate logistic regression and allows flexibility to address different aspects of seismicity and end user needs.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
I Spassiani, G. Falcone, M. Murru, W. Marzocchi
Summary: In this paper, the authors gather and analyze the results of the OEF system in Italy during its first 10 years of operation. The system provides real-time earthquake forecasts for the entire Italian territory based on an ensemble model. The authors evaluate the performance of the forecasts using standard tests and performance measures borrowed from other fields. The study aims to identify weaknesses in the OEF-Italy modeling, provide helpful measures for stakeholders, and uncover features of seismic activity in Italy.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
J. A. Bayona, W. H. Savran, D. A. Rhoades, M. J. Werner
Summary: According to the research, using smoothed seismicity models can predict moderate-to-large earthquakes in California over a period of 5-15 years. However, current prediction models still struggle to explain the spatial patterns of earthquakes.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Eric Beauce, Piero Poli, Felix Waldhauser, Benjamin Holtzman, Christopher Scholz
Summary: The Earth's crust experiences oscillatory stress perturbations from the solid Earth and ocean tides. The seismic response to these stress modulations contains valuable information about earthquake physics and crustal properties. Through experimental and observational studies, it has been suggested that the strength of tidal modulation of seismicity increases before large earthquakes, and our research supports this hypothesis. By analyzing a comprehensive earthquake catalog leading up to the Ridgecrest earthquake in California on July 6th, 2019, we observed enhanced tidal sensitivity of seismicity along the fault approximately 1.5 years before the mainshock, providing new insights into the earthquake preparation process.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Kyungjae Im, Jean-Philippe Avouac
Summary: Earthquakes cluster due to stress transfer among faults or transient loading by aseismic slip events. Existing models like the ETAS model and the earthquake nucleation model explain different aspects of clustering but have limitations. A new Discrete Fault Network model based on rate-and-state friction successfully simulates realistic swarms, foreshocks, and aftershocks, highlighting the importance of fault zone complexity in seismicity patterns.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Tomas Fischer, Sebastian Hainzl, Josef Vlcek
Summary: The hypocentres of earthquake swarms and injection-induced seismicity show systematic migration, and the origin of short episodes of rapid migration is still unclear. This study reviews possible triggering mechanisms and proposes a graphical method to distinguish internal and external triggering forces. Two models, the crack model and the rupture front model, are proposed to explain the spreading of hypocentres. An automatic algorithm is developed to detect fast migration episodes in seismicity data, and it is applied to earthquake swarms and injection-induced seismicity. The results show that fast migration episodes are relatively frequent during earthquake swarms, and the migration velocity is related to the duration of the episodes.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Behnam M. Asayesh, Hamid Zafarani, Sebastian Hainzl, Shubham Sharma
Summary: On November 12, 2017, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred in the west of Iran near the Iraq border. Two large aftershocks of magnitude 5.9 and 6.3 followed about 9 and 12 months later, resulting in the 2017-2019 Kermanshah sequence. This study analyzes the sequence and its potential to forecast aftershock distribution, comparing different models and taking into account the impact of large secondary earthquakes. The results highlight the importance of considering secondary stress changes in improving earthquake forecasts.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
David L. Guenaga, Richard A. Alfaro-Diaz, Aaron A. Velasco
Summary: The state of Utah in the USA is seismically active and susceptible to earthquakes, with around 3800 catalogued earthquakes per year. Research shows that dynamic triggering events caused by global earthquakes with M ≥ 7 are sparse in Utah, accounting for less than 20% of the earthquakes that occurred from 2000 to the end of 2017, except for the Denali Fault (M7.9) earthquake in Alaska.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
A. M. Lombardi
Summary: This study examines three major seismic sequences in Italy and finds that the variability of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value may not be a reliable indicator of stress or a significant precursor in these examples. The findings suggest that chance, data inhomogeneities, and inefficiencies in estimation methodologies may contribute to the variability of the b-value.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Teimuraz Matcharashvili, Zbigniew Czechowski, Tamaz Chelidze, Natalia Zhukova
Summary: The study revealed significant differences in the regularity of seismic processes at different time spans, particularly during assumed aftershock periods. Prior to large earthquakes, seismic activities may exhibit distinct characteristics compared to random processes.
PHYSICS OF THE EARTH AND PLANETARY INTERIORS
(2021)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Francesco Serafini, Mark Naylor, Finn Lindgren, Maximilian J. Werner, Ian Main
Summary: Selecting an optimal forecasting model for seismic sequences is crucial for operational earthquake forecasting. This study examines the performance of different metrics for comparing probabilistic seismicity forecasts and proves that the Parimutuel Gambling score is generally improper. Even in the special case where it is proper, it can still be used improperly. The study provides simulation techniques to assess the appropriateness of a score and compares the performance of the Parimutuel Gambling score with two commonly used proper scores. The findings suggest that the Parimutuel Gambling score should not be used to distinguish between multiple competing forecasts.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2022)
Article
Geochemistry & Geophysics
Asim M. Khawaja, Sebastian Hainzl, Danijel Schorlemmer, Pablo Iturrieta, Jose A. Bayona, William H. Savran, Maximilian Werner, Warner Marzocchi
Summary: This study aims to evaluate earthquake forecast models by using a grid-based format to express earthquake forecasts and assessing the spatial distribution of seismicity through the S-test. The study found that the high resolution grid and sparse earthquake distribution affect the statistical power, and recommends the use of Quadtree-based multi-resolution grids to improve the statistical power in future experiments.
GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
(2023)
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Summary: In many countries, there has been a deceleration in the time evolution of COVID-19 even before lockdowns, possibly due to increased social awareness. The susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered model introduced by Barnes explains this phenomenon.
JOURNAL OF PHYSICS A-MATHEMATICAL AND THEORETICAL
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Marco Baiesi, Stefano Iubini, Enzo Orlandini
Summary: A mean-field kinetic model suggests that the relaxation dynamics of wormlike micellar networks is a long and complex process, with subtle end-recombination dynamics that may not be easily detected in rheology experiments. The relaxation time scale is exponential and related to the free energy of an end cap and branching free energy.
JOURNAL OF CHEMICAL PHYSICS
(2021)
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Chemistry, Physical
Anna Braghetto, Enzo Orlandini, Marco Baiesi
Summary: Explainable and interpretable unsupervised machine learning helps to understand the underlying structure of data. An ensemble analysis of machine learning models is introduced to consolidate their interpretation. The application of this method reveals unexpected properties of amino acids and protein secondary structure.
JOURNAL OF CHEMICAL THEORY AND COMPUTATION
(2023)
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Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Gianmaria Falasco, Eli Barkai, Marco Baiesi
Summary: The research extends the virial theorem to nonequilibrium conditions for Langevin dynamics and has important experimental applications.
Correction
Physics, Multidisciplinary
Marco Baiesi, Carlo Burigana, Livia Conti, Gianmaria Falasco, Christian Maes, Lamberto Rondoni, Tiziana Trombetti
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(2020)
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PHYSICAL REVIEW RESEARCH
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(2018)