期刊
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
卷 24, 期 6, 页码 2463-2475出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14104
关键词
future climates; hydraulic factors; last glacial maximum; middle holocene; nonanalogous climate; novel ecosystems; thermal factors
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [31370486]
- Special Research Program for Public-Welfare Forestry [201404201]
Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distributionbased method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-fromthe- past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances.
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