Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Peihua Qin
Summary: This study investigates changes in population exposure to precipitation and temperature extremes under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming levels. The results show that population exposure to wet, dry, and heat extremes generally increases over certain regions, while exposure decreases in eastern Asia due to a reduction in population. The study highlights the importance of addressing possible climate risks under global warming.
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Francois Duchene, Rafiq Hamdi, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Steven Caluwaerts, Rozemien De Troch, Lesley de Cruz, Piet Termonia
Summary: This study uses a statistical-dynamical computationally-cheap method to downscale climate projections for Brussels. The results show that under future global warming, the summer mean temperature in Brussels will increase, but the Urban Heat Island intensity will not increase. However, the number of heatwave days and heat stress days will increase.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Eunsang Cho, Rachel R. McCrary, Jennifer M. Jacobs
Summary: Projected changes in extreme snow-related indicators show decreases in the continental US and southern Canada, but increases in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. California and the Pacific Northwest are expected to experience an increase in extreme runoff potential, potentially leading to larger rain-on-snow floods. Regions with high variability among model ensembles need further investigation to reduce regional uncertainties.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Derbetini A. Vondou, Ismaila Diallo, Arona Diedhiou, Torsten Weber, Romeo S. Tanessong, Jean P. Nghonda, Zephirin D. Yepdo
Summary: The study indicates that as the global warming levels increase, heat stress and the proportion of population at risk of discomfort will gradually rise in Central Africa, potentially impacting the health and socio-economic development of the region's residents.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Victoria Gallardo, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Eleonore Riber, Julien Boe, Laurent Terray
Summary: The increasing intensity and frequency of high-temperature events in response to climate change can potentially impact the aviation industry, since aircraft takeoff and landing performances depend on near-surface air temperature. Previous studies have combined climate data with aircraft technical data to estimate the future impact of rising high temperatures on aircraft takeoff. They found a decrease of maximum takeoff weights and the lengthening of takeoff distances. The Mediterranean region is a climate change hot spot area, specially concerned by extreme high-temperatures increase. In this study, the magnitude and trends of the daily maximum near-surface temperature extremes in summer were analysed over major airports in Southwestern Europe. Trends in the period 1961-2014 were analysed from observations and reanalysis. Future changes by 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, with respect to 1961-2005, were analysed from simulations performed with Regional and Global Climate Models (RCMs and GCMs). Before assessing future climate projections, climate models were evaluated in present climate, and the RCM and GCM ensembles were compared to each other. No clear added value was found for RCMs over GCMs in present climate at the airport scale in these terms. GCMs project larger temperature changes than RCMs over the same locations. Multi-model ensemble mean projected changes under the RCP8.5 scenario range between + 1.7 and + 3.2 degrees C by the near term, and between + 4.9 and + 8.5 degrees C by the long term, across the airports and the RCM and GCM ensembles. This increase of high-temperature extremes would impact airport operations. Adaptation or mitigation policies would become necessary.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, Daniela Jacob
Summary: This study utilizes a large dataset of regional climate model simulations over Europe to show that changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated even with a small signal in projected global mean temperature.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
R. Barimalala, N. Raholijao, W. Pokam, C. J. C. Reason
Summary: This study uses data from 25 regional climate models to predict the climate change in Madagascar under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels. It is projected that with global warming, the annual mean temperature of the island will significantly increase, with the west and southwest regions experiencing the most drastic rise in temperature. Changes in rainfall are influenced by location, months, and warming levels, with more pronounced changes observed under the 2°C global warming level.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sanjiv Neupane, Sangam Shrestha, Usha Ghimire, S. Mohanasundaram, Sarawut Ninsawat
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of 21 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in simulating climate extremes in Asian cities, identifying three best models for Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Kathmandu valley.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hao Yu, Di Wu, Xiuting Piao, Tianyi Zhang, Yu Yan, Yuan Tian, Qian Li, Xuefeng Cui
Summary: Heat extremes have a serious impact globally, with the Mediterranean area being particularly vulnerable due to high population density and urbanization rates. Climate scenarios suggest that both daytime and nighttime heat waves in the Mediterranean will intensify in the 21st century, particularly in specific regions like northwest Africa, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and the Middle East. Mitigating global warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C could significantly reduce population exposure and agricultural losses from heat extremes.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
S. H. Gebrechorkos, M. T. Taye, B. Birhanu, D. Solomon, T. Demissie
Summary: Climate change is causing impacts on agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa, which are projected to intensify in the future. To assess these impacts and facilitate adaptation and mitigation measures, the study evaluated climate changes and their effects on hydrology and hydrological extremes in the region. Utilizing data from seven global climate models, the study downscaled the outputs to a high-resolution hydrological model. Results indicate that there will be an increase in annual precipitation in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya, but a decrease in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s and 2080s. The study also projects increased precipitation during the long and short rainy seasons, as well as rising temperatures and evapotranspiration, highlighting the need for site-specific adaptation strategies throughout the 21st century.
Article
Energy & Fuels
Salomon Obahoundje, Arona Diedhiou, Laurent Dubus, Eric Adechina Alamou, Ernest Amoussou, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Antwi Ofosu
Summary: This study assesses the impacts of climate change on hydropower in West Africa using climate models and machine learning methods. The findings suggest that both inflow to the reservoir and energy generation will decrease in the future, which is crucial for decision-makers in energy planning.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Brian Ayugi, Zhihong Jiang, Vedaste Iyakaremye, Hamida Ngoma, Hassen Babaousmail, Charles Onyutha, Victor Nnamdi Dike, Richard Mumo, Victor Ongoma
Summary: Understanding the exposure of East African population to extreme precipitation events is crucial for climate change adaptation. This study shows that extreme precipitation in the region is projected to increase under future climate scenarios, with the largest increase expected in eastern and northern Kenya. The population in Burundi, Rwanda, and some parts of Uganda will face intensified precipitation extremes. However, changes are expected to be small in most parts of Kenya and Tanzania. Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius has a significantly lower impact on extreme precipitation compared to a warming target of 2.0 degrees Celsius. Future exposure is primarily driven by population changes rather than climate or concurrent changes in climate and population.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Catherine D. Bradshaw, Edward Pope, Gillian Kay, Jemma C. S. Davie, Andrew Cottrell, James Bacon, Adriana Cosse, Nick Dunstone, Stewart Jennings, Andrew Challinor, Sarah Chapman, Cathryn Birch, Susannah M. Sallu, Richard King, Jennie Macdiarmid
Summary: Maize production in South Africa is at risk of being severely impacted by climate extremes, including record-breaking high temperatures, low temperatures, droughts, and heavy rainfall. The chances of unprecedented high temperatures are increasing, particularly during strong El Nino years. With climate change, these extreme events are projected to become more common, highlighting the need for significant investment in adaptation measures to ensure food system resilience.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Manas Pant, R. Bhatla, Soumik Ghosh, Sushant Das, R. K. Mall
Summary: In this study, a comprehensive analysis of rainfall extremes over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in present and future scenarios was conducted using CORDEX-CORE simulations. The results show that under a high-emission scenario, the mean Indian Summer monsoon rainfall and wet days will decline significantly, while the 90th and 99th percentile days and total rainfall on wet days are projected to increase. These findings suggest an increase and intensification of rainfall extremes over the IGP by the end of the 21st century, and a possible shift in the monsoon regime during the later months of the year in a warming climate. The study's findings can be crucial for predicting the Indian Summer monsoon rainfall and planning mitigation strategies.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Water Resources
Charles Gyamfi, Jacob Zora-Oni Tindan, Gislar Edgar Kifanyi
Summary: The study evaluated the performance of nine CORDEX RCA4 Regional Climate Model simulations for replicating observed precipitation in the Pra River Basin in Ghana. It was found that on an annual timescale, CanESM2, IPSL, CNRM-CM5, and HadGEM2-ES showed minimal biases and were selected for further analysis. The multi-model ensemble means had strong correlation with observations but weak spatial variability, recommending the use of CanESM2, IPSL, CNRM-CM5, and HadGEM2-ES for climate impact assessment and hydrologic modelling studies.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Jonathan Spinoni
Summary: This dataset provides bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation projections for continental Africa based on regional climate model simulations. It can be useful for climate change impact studies in various sectors. The bias-adjustment has a significant impact on extreme temperature-related hazards, increasing the projected risks. However, it generally preserves the original results for precipitation indices.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ibrahima Diouf, Abiodun M. Adeola, Gbenga J. Abiodun, Christopher Lennard, Joyce M. Shirinde, Pascal Yaka, Jacques-Andre Ndione, Emiola O. Gbobaniyi
Summary: This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa, showing a projected decrease in malaria prevalence in the coming decades, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results suggest that the southern region of West Africa is at a higher risk of malaria epidemics, necessitating additional efforts in malaria control programs to make optimal use of available resources.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alain T. Tamoffo, Alessandro Dosio, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Torsten Weber
Summary: This study analyzed the representation of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system in two high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) and identified biases caused by temperature and pressure differences between the landmass and the ocean. These biases led to errors in the strength of the monsoon flow, moisture advection, and convective circulation, affecting the rainfall patterns in the region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ioan Sabin Taranu, Samuel Somot, Antoinette Alias, Julien Boe, Christine Delire
Summary: Important disparities in summer climate change projections were found between global and regional climate models. These discrepancies are mainly generated by differences in aerosols representation and atmospheric physics, while the role of plant physiology is limited. Additionally, these discrepancies are unlikely to be caused by the effects of increased resolution in the models.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
L. Magnus T. Joelsson, Erik Engstrom, Erik Kjellstrom
Summary: This study homogenized the Swedish monthly average 2 m temperature observational data set using a new automated version of the homogenization tool in R. The data from 836 individual time series (1860-2021) were merged into 456 time series with a novel automatic merging method. The results showed that the corrections made to the data were generally small, with larger corrections observed in the early periods and in the summertime. The average trend in the merged and homogenized data set did not significantly differ from that of the raw observational data. The study also found that extremely warm months were more frequent and extremely cold months were less frequent in the most recent 30-year period compared to the raw observational data set.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sydney Samuel, Alessandro Dosio, Kgakgamatso Mphale, Dieudonne Nsadisa Faka, Modise Wiston
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate model ensembles in simulating extreme precipitation in southern Africa. The ensembles generally overestimate mean precipitation and interannual variability, while underestimating simple daily rainfall intensity and the number of consecutive dry days. Compared to the global climate model ensembles, the regional climate model ensembles perform better in simulating extreme precipitation. Bias correction is necessary when using these ensembles in impact assessments.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, Alessandro Dosio, Brian O. O. Ayugi, Daniel F. T. Hagan, Laban L. L. Kebacho, Victor Ongoma
Summary: This study used EOF analysis to identify and describe continental-scale seasonal precipitation patterns over Africa. It found that atmospheric circulation, driven by high-pressure systems, influences moisture distribution and the seasonal rain belt distribution. Smaller-scale atmospheric systems also play a role in precipitation patterns, but large-scale factors dominate the overall pattern. The results provide a comprehensive understanding of African seasonal precipitation modes and can be used as a reference for future studies.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moustapha Tall, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Alima Dajuma, Mansour Almazroui, Djan'na Koubodana Houteta, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Fatima Driouech, Arona Diedhiou, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts, their changes, and hot spot locations across Africa using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to precipitation data from different sources. The results identify five regions with similar drought variability and show that the most common periods of drought occurrence are the 1970s, 1980s, and to a lesser extent, the 1990s. Changes in drought characteristics indicate increased duration, frequency, and severity in certain regions during the intermediate and recent past compared to the far past. These findings are useful for drought risk management in Africa and future drought analysis under global warming conditions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellstrom, Johan Lindstrom, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, Marie-Jose Gaillard
Summary: This study investigates the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate 2500 years ago. By using global and regional climate models, the results show that the simulated climate during that period was warmer than the pre-industrial climate. The study also suggests that LULCC at 2.5 ka affected the climate in parts of Europe.
CLIMATE OF THE PAST
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
John Erik Engstrom, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellstrom, Erik Kjellstrom, Chunlue Zhou, Deliang Chen, Cesar Azorin-Molina
Summary: Instrumental measurements of wind speed and direction from 13 stations in Sweden during the 1920s to 1940s have been digitized and made available through the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute's open data portal. This rescue effort followed the protocol of the World Meteorological Organization in digitizing and quality controlling the raw observation data. The rescued wind observations can improve our understanding of long-term wind changes and climate simulations of the past.
EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE DATA
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Gina Ziervogel, Chris Lennard, Guy Midgley, Mark New, Nicholas P. Simpson, Christopher H. Trisos, Luckson Zvobgo
Summary: This commentary reflects on the key findings and implications for South Africa from the 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report, focusing on the challenges and opportunities in cities, the food-water-energy-nature nexus, knowledge and capacity strengthening, climate finance, equity, justice and social protection, and climate-resilient development pathways. The article emphasizes the importance of addressing research gaps and urgently ramping up climate action to ensure a livable future for all South Africans.
SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE
(2022)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellstrom, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylha, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsen, Kirsten Halsnaes, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Sarkka, Laura Tuomi, Norbert Wasmund
Summary: Natural hazards are extreme events that occur naturally and have negative effects on people and the environment. Understanding their causes, likelihood, and consequences helps society be better prepared and develop adaptation strategies. In the Baltic Sea region, natural hazards related to climate change are identified as a significant challenge. This study summarizes existing knowledge about extreme events in the region, including storms, waves, sea level changes, floods, and their implications for society and ecosystems.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Groeger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Boergel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, Erik Kjellstrom
Summary: The Baltic Sea, a semi-enclosed and shallow sea in northern Europe, is projected to experience higher water temperatures and changes in mixing and sea ice cover as a result of climate change. The impact on salinity and biogeochemical cycles is uncertain, but reducing nutrient input could significantly improve the ecological status of the Baltic Sea and its resilience to climate change.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)
Review
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Ole Bossing Christensen, Erik Kjellstrom, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Groeger, Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Summary: "Translation: The Baltic Sea region is highly sensitive to climate change. Recent research has focused on estimating future climate change and its impacts, with a particular emphasis on regional climate models. The latest projections show a strong warming trend, especially in the northern part of the region during winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in most areas, except for the southern half during summer. Coupled atmosphere-ocean models reveal localized modifications to the climate change signal based on differences in sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions."
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2022)
