Article
Environmental Sciences
R. Barimalala, N. Raholijao, W. Pokam, C. J. C. Reason
Summary: This study uses data from 25 regional climate models to predict the climate change in Madagascar under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels. It is projected that with global warming, the annual mean temperature of the island will significantly increase, with the west and southwest regions experiencing the most drastic rise in temperature. Changes in rainfall are influenced by location, months, and warming levels, with more pronounced changes observed under the 2°C global warming level.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Javier Diez-Sierra, Maialen Iturbide, Jesus Fernandez, Jose M. Gutierrez, Josipa Milovac, Antonio S. Cofino
Summary: Assessing the regional responses to different global warming levels is a crucial challenge in climate change sciences. This study evaluates the consistency between global and regional projections and finds strong evidence to support the use of regional climate models in studying global warming levels.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Jonathan Spinoni, Paulo Barbosa, Edoardo Bucchignani, John Cassano, Tereza Cavazos, Alessandro Cescatti, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Ole Bossing Christensen, Erika Coppola, Jason Evans, Giovanni Forzieri, Beate Geyer, Filippo Giorgi, Daniela Jacob, Jack Katzfey, Torben Koenigk, Rene Laprise, Christopher John Lennard, M. Levent Kurnaz, Delei Li, Marta Llopart, Niall McCormick, Gustavo Naumann, Grigory Nikulin, Tugba Ozturk, Hans-Jurgen Panitz, Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha, Silvina Alicia Solman, Jozef Syktus, Fredolin Tangang, Claas Teichmann, Robert Vautard, Jurgen Valentin Vogt, Katja Winger, George Zittis, Alessandro Dosio
Summary: This study predicts the impact of global warming on population and land-use exposure to drought risk, showing that even at low global warming levels, the frequency and severity of drought will significantly increase, requiring extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts to avoid the severe impacts of climate change.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kevin Sieck, Christine Nam, Laurens M. Bouwer, Diana Rechid, Daniela Jacob
Summary: This study utilizes a large dataset of regional climate model simulations over Europe to show that changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices can be robustly estimated even with a small signal in projected global mean temperature.
EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Thierry C. Fotso-Nguemo, Derbetini A. Vondou, Ismaila Diallo, Arona Diedhiou, Torsten Weber, Romeo S. Tanessong, Jean P. Nghonda, Zephirin D. Yepdo
Summary: The study indicates that as the global warming levels increase, heat stress and the proportion of population at risk of discomfort will gradually rise in Central Africa, potentially impacting the health and socio-economic development of the region's residents.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Sydney Samuel, Modise Wiston, Kgakgamatso Mphale, Dieudonne Nsadisa Faka
Summary: This study examines the potential implications of different levels of global warming on extreme precipitation indices in the Zambezi River basin. The results show that global warming will decrease the number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, and consecutive wet days, but increase the consecutive dry days and rainfall intensity. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius can mitigate the impacts of extreme precipitation.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Flavio Lehner, Sloan Coats
Summary: Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming, but non-linear changes are possible in the context of hydroclimate. The uncertainty in climate model responses to anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols can impact regional hydroclimate projections as global temperatures stabilize.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Christiana Funmilola Olusegun, Samuel Ogunjo, Adeyemi Olusola
Summary: This study used copula modeling to assess the dependence of drought severity and duration in four subregions in Africa. The analysis was conducted for the reference period of 1991-2020 and the future period of 2071-2099. Three regional climate models (RCMs) and three gridded daily precipitation products were used for the analysis. The results showed good agreement between the RCMs and the gridded reference observations, with slight differences attributed to different processing algorithms. The analysis also considered different copula functions and found strong correlation values for drought duration-severity in all regions of Africa.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Decheng Zhou, Jingfeng Xiao, Steve Frolking, Shuguang Liu, Liangxia Zhang, Yaoping Cui, Guoyi Zhou
Summary: Croplands have a significant impact on land surface temperature, with general daytime warming and nighttime cooling observed. However, the effects vary greatly by location and season, with nearly half of crop-dominated lands showing daytime cooling and/or nighttime warming on a per-pixel basis. Different countries also experience varying temperature changes due to the size of their cropland areas and local climate effects.
REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alain T. Tamoffo, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Torsten Weber
Summary: Understanding real uncertainties in projections is essential for decision and policy makers. This study investigates the response of the West African Monsoon system to different emission scenarios using regional climate models. The analysis reveals diverse rainfall change patterns under global warming, and identifies surface pressure changes and jet streams as key factors influencing rainfall distribution. The study suggests that the Delta Pr patterns from one model (REMO2015) are more plausible than another (RegCM4-v7), and highlights the importance of mitigating warming as recommended by the Paris agreement.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sydney Samuel, Alessandro Dosio, Kgakgamatso Mphale, Dieudonne Nsadisa Faka, Modise Wiston
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate model ensembles in simulating extreme precipitation in southern Africa. The ensembles generally overestimate mean precipitation and interannual variability, while underestimating simple daily rainfall intensity and the number of consecutive dry days. Compared to the global climate model ensembles, the regional climate model ensembles perform better in simulating extreme precipitation. Bias correction is necessary when using these ensembles in impact assessments.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Xiaorui Niu, Jianping Tang, Deliang Chen, Shuyu Wang, Tinghai Ou
Summary: Under the CORDEX-EA-II framework, outputs from two RCMs driven by four GCMs were used to investigate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under RCP8.5. Results showed significant disagreements in warming intensity and center among RCMs, with the largest spread found above 5,000 m. EDW signal was primarily influenced by surface albedo feedback (SAF) and the contribution of downward longwave radiation (DLW) varied among models. Additionally, RegCM4 showed higher sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing compared to WRF, resulting in larger temperature projections and stronger EDW signal.
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Hao Yu, Di Wu, Xiuting Piao, Tianyi Zhang, Yu Yan, Yuan Tian, Qian Li, Xuefeng Cui
Summary: Heat extremes have a serious impact globally, with the Mediterranean area being particularly vulnerable due to high population density and urbanization rates. Climate scenarios suggest that both daytime and nighttime heat waves in the Mediterranean will intensify in the 21st century, particularly in specific regions like northwest Africa, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and the Middle East. Mitigating global warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C could significantly reduce population exposure and agricultural losses from heat extremes.
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Maria Chara Karypidou, Eleni Katragkou, Stefan Pieter Sobolowski
Summary: The region of southern Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change and is projected to experience severe precipitation shortages. This study compares different satellite products and gauge-based datasets to assess the changes in the region. The results show good agreement between satellite and gauge-based products in spatial pattern and trends, but overestimated trends by regional climate simulations. The higher-resolution regional simulations performed better than global simulations in reproducing the annual cycle and extreme precipitation indices. However, reproducing key phenomena still poses a challenge for the models.
GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Ekrem Sulukan, Alper Baran, Onur Senol, Meryem Kankaynar, Serkan Yildirim, Ismail Bolat, Hacer Akguel Ceyhun, Emine Toraman, Saltuk Bugrahan Ceyhun
Summary: Global warming increases the toxicity of environmental pollutants on organisms. It is important to conduct studies with temperature differences close to projected global climate values to understand this threat. In this study, the effects of a 0.5-degree temperature increase on the toxicity of the widely used herbicide glyphosate on zebrafish were investigated on behavioral and molecular levels. The results showed that increased temperature and glyphosate concentration disrupted anxiety and circadian rhythm, and caused histopathological changes and increased immunopositivity in the brain. Metabolome analysis revealed the presence of over thirty annotated metabolites due to the synergistic effect of temperature increase and glyphosate exposure. Overall, even a 0.5-degree temperature increase intensified the toxicity of glyphosate in the zebrafish model.
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Engineering, Civil
Daniel Mengistu, Woldeamlak Bewket, Alessandro Dosio, Hans-Juergen Panitz
Summary: This study used regional climate model (RCM), COSMO Climate Limited-area Model (CCLM), coupled with a hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin. The results show that future climate change is projected to increase potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff, while decreasing total water yield of the Basin. Additionally, the contribution of baseflow to total water yield is expected to decline, which will have significant implications for water management in the Basin.
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alain T. Tamoffo, Grigory Nikulin, Derbetini A. Vondou, Alessandro Dosio, Robert Nouayou, Minchao Wu, Pascal M. Igri
Summary: Reducing turbulent mixing improves the representation of rainfall dynamics over the Congo Basin in the RCA4-v4 model compared to RCA4-v1, leading to better simulation of precipitation and climate system dynamics in the region. This enhancement is related to the models' different representations of driving mechanisms and processes, indicating the importance of accurately capturing turbulent mixing effects in climate models for simulating rainfall patterns.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alessandro Dosio, Martin W. Jury, Mansour Almazroui, Moetasim Ashfaq, Ismaila Diallo, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Nana A. B. Klutse, Christopher Lennard, Izidine Pinto, Mouhamadou B. Sylla, Alain T. Tamoffo
Summary: This study provides an assessment of future daily characteristics of African precipitation by comparing large ensembles of global and regional climate models, highlighting the similarities and inconsistencies between them. While results for some precipitation characteristics are consistent among ensembles, inconsistencies exist between global and regional models in projecting changes in specific regions and seasons. The study emphasizes the importance of a process-based evaluation of mechanisms controlling precipitation over the region.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Rodric Merime Nonki, Andre Lenouo, Christopher J. Lennard, Raphael M. Tshimanga, Clement Tchawoua
Summary: This study compares the impact of different PET estimation methods on hydrological model performance and finds that the optimized model parameters are significantly affected by PET inputs. The hydrological model is insensitive to PET inputs using a dynamic sensitivity approach, while it is significantly affected using a static sensitivity approach.
JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
(2021)
Article
Astronomy & Astrophysics
Alessandro Dosio, Izidine Pinto, Christopher Lennard, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Christopher Jack, Grigory Nikulin
Summary: The daily characteristics of recent past precipitation over Africa are evaluated using various observational products, showing significant spatial distribution differences among products, especially in areas with sparse gauge networks. Large uncertainties in the annual precipitation cycle are particularly visible in certain regions of Africa.Interannual variability varies significantly among reanalysis data sets, with satellite and gauge-based products generally providing more consistent results.
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
(2021)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Babatunde J. Abiodun, Romaric C. Odoulami, Windmanagda Sawadogo, Olumuyiwa A. Oloniyo, Abayomi A. Abatan, Mark New, Christopher Lennard, Pinto Izidine, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Douglas G. MacMartin
Summary: Socio-economic activities in Africa heavily rely on the continent's river basins, but effectively managing drought risks due to climate change remains a significant challenge. Research shows that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) intervention could alleviate temperature-related climate change impacts in Africa, but there is a lack of information on how SAI could influence drought characteristics and management over the river basins.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Jonathan Spinoni
Summary: This dataset provides bias-adjusted temperature and precipitation projections for continental Africa based on regional climate model simulations. It can be useful for climate change impact studies in various sectors. The bias-adjustment has a significant impact on extreme temperature-related hazards, increasing the projected risks. However, it generally preserves the original results for precipitation indices.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Ibrahima Diouf, Abiodun M. Adeola, Gbenga J. Abiodun, Christopher Lennard, Joyce M. Shirinde, Pascal Yaka, Jacques-Andre Ndione, Emiola O. Gbobaniyi
Summary: This study investigated the potential effects of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa, showing a projected decrease in malaria prevalence in the coming decades, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results suggest that the southern region of West Africa is at a higher risk of malaria epidemics, necessitating additional efforts in malaria control programs to make optimal use of available resources.
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Nicholas P. Simpson, Talbot M. Andrews, Matthias Kronke, Christopher Lennard, Romaric C. Odoulami, Birgitt Ouweneel, Anna Steynor, Christopher H. Trisos
Summary: Climate change literacy is crucial for informed responses to adaptation and mitigation, with education and mobility being strong positive predictors of literacy. Poverty and gender disparities can decrease climate change literacy rates, highlighting the need for interventions targeting specific regions and demographics to increase awareness and understanding of climate change.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Alain T. Tamoffo, Alessandro Dosio, Leonard K. Amekudzi, Torsten Weber
Summary: This study analyzed the representation of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system in two high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) and identified biases caused by temperature and pressure differences between the landmass and the ocean. These biases led to errors in the strength of the monsoon flow, moisture advection, and convective circulation, affecting the rainfall patterns in the region.
Article
Environmental Sciences
Sydney Samuel, Alessandro Dosio, Kgakgamatso Mphale, Dieudonne Nsadisa Faka, Modise Wiston
Summary: This study evaluates the performance of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate model ensembles in simulating extreme precipitation in southern Africa. The ensembles generally overestimate mean precipitation and interannual variability, while underestimating simple daily rainfall intensity and the number of consecutive dry days. Compared to the global climate model ensembles, the regional climate model ensembles perform better in simulating extreme precipitation. Bias correction is necessary when using these ensembles in impact assessments.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Kenny T. C. Lim Kam Sian, Alessandro Dosio, Brian O. O. Ayugi, Daniel F. T. Hagan, Laban L. L. Kebacho, Victor Ongoma
Summary: This study used EOF analysis to identify and describe continental-scale seasonal precipitation patterns over Africa. It found that atmospheric circulation, driven by high-pressure systems, influences moisture distribution and the seasonal rain belt distribution. Smaller-scale atmospheric systems also play a role in precipitation patterns, but large-scale factors dominate the overall pattern. The results provide a comprehensive understanding of African seasonal precipitation modes and can be used as a reference for future studies.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Moustapha Tall, Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla, Alima Dajuma, Mansour Almazroui, Djan'na Koubodana Houteta, Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Alessandro Dosio, Christopher Lennard, Fatima Driouech, Arona Diedhiou, Filippo Giorgi
Summary: This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts, their changes, and hot spot locations across Africa using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to precipitation data from different sources. The results identify five regions with similar drought variability and show that the most common periods of drought occurrence are the 1970s, 1980s, and to a lesser extent, the 1990s. Changes in drought characteristics indicate increased duration, frequency, and severity in certain regions during the intermediate and recent past compared to the far past. These findings are useful for drought risk management in Africa and future drought analysis under global warming conditions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Gina Ziervogel, Chris Lennard, Guy Midgley, Mark New, Nicholas P. Simpson, Christopher H. Trisos, Luckson Zvobgo
Summary: This commentary reflects on the key findings and implications for South Africa from the 2022 IPCC Working Group II Report, focusing on the challenges and opportunities in cities, the food-water-energy-nature nexus, knowledge and capacity strengthening, climate finance, equity, justice and social protection, and climate-resilient development pathways. The article emphasizes the importance of addressing research gaps and urgently ramping up climate action to ensure a livable future for all South Africans.
SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE
(2022)