期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
卷 77, 期 3, 页码 -出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s12665-018-7295-8
关键词
Climate extremes; Rice yield; Jiangsu
资金
- China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest [GYHY201506001-6]
- Jiangsu Province Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars [BK20170102]
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology/Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology [JKLAM1603, JKLAM1604]
- Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China [16KJB170008]
- Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Agro-meteorological Support and Applied Technique/China Meteorological Administration [AMF201507, AMF201608]
In this study, the regional variations of climate extremes and its possible impact on rice yield in Jiangsu province, southeast China were investigated. A total of 18 climate extremes indices (CEI) of rice-growing period (May-October) based on the daily climate records and rice yield data at 52 stations during 1961-2012 were calculated and analyzed. The main findings were as follows: (1) due to the remarked regional differences of climate extremes, Jiangsu could be divided into six climatic subregions: westernmost, northwest, north, southwest, south, and southeast corner; (2) trends of 18 indices in the six subregions using Mann-Kendall test indicated that Jiangsu was dominated by an obvious wetting and warming tendency, especially in the southern area; (3) correlation analysis between rice yield and CEI using first-difference and climate-induced yield method showed that the negative influences of precipitation extremes were more notable compared to temperature extremes; (4) P95 [precipitation due to very wet days (> 95th percentile)] should be selected as a key meteorological disasters indicator affecting rice yield in the northwest, north, southwest, and south Jiangsu; (5) the increase of P95 since 1990s was detected in most of Jiangsu, which would bring huge risks to rice growing.
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