Can an ensemble climate simulation be used to separate climate change signals from internal unforced variability?

Impacts of internal variability on temperature and precipitation trends in large ensemble simulations by two climate models

(2018) Aiguo Dai et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus

(2017) Shineng Hu et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake

(2017) Lukas von Känel et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

An “Observational Large Ensemble” to Compare Observed and Modeled Temperature Trend Uncertainty due to Internal Variability

(2017) Karen A. McKinnon et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years: Mechanisms and Implications*

(2016) Clara Deser et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Tropical Pacific impacts on cooling North American winters

(2016) Michael Sigmond et al.   Nature Climate Change

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

(2016) John C. Fyfe et al.   Nature Climate Change

Magnitudes and timescales of total solar irradiance variability

(2016) Greg Kopp   Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Demonstrating the value of larger ensembles in forecasting physical systems

(2016) Reason L. Machete et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability

(2015) J. E. Kay et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

(2015) Ed Hawkins et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Quantifying the Role of Internal Climate Variability in Future Climate Trends

(2015) David W. J. Thompson et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Has there been a hiatus?

(2015) K. E. Trenberth   SCIENCE

Evaluation of the Warm-Season Diurnal Variability over East Asia in Recent Reanalyses JRA-55, ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, and NASA MERRA

(2014) Guixing Chen et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature

(2014) Benjamin D. Santer et al.   Nature Geoscience

Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models

(2014) Felix Pithan et al.   Nature Geoscience

The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

(2013) L J Wilcox et al.   Environmental Research Letters

A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models

(2013) Giuseppe Zappa et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Projecting North American Climate over the Next 50 Years: Uncertainty due to Internal Variability*

(2013) Clara Deser et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Energy budget constraints on climate response

(2013) Alexander Otto et al.   Nature Geoscience

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends

(2013) Kevin Cowtan et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

MAC-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies

(2013) Stefan Kinne et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

(2013) Marco A. Giorgetta et al.   Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation

(2013) Carley E. Iles et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES

Determination of a lower bound on Earth's climate sensitivity

(2013) Lennart Bengtsson et al.   TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

(2012) Simon Driscoll et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season

(2012) J. M. Wallace et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate

(2012) Clara Deser et al.   Nature Climate Change

The changing atmospheric water cycle in Polar Regions in a warmer climate

(2011) Lennart Bengtsson et al.   TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

(2010) Clara Deser et al.   CLIMATE DYNAMICS