Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy

Resilience Thinking: Integrating Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability

(2017) Carl Folke et al.   ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY

Submerged macrophyte decline in shallow lakes: What have we learnt in the last forty years?

(2016) Geoff Phillips et al.   AQUATIC BOTANY

Ecological classification of lakes: Uncertainty and the influence of year-to-year variability

(2016) Martin Søndergaard et al.   ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS

Are generic early-warning signals reliable indicators of population collapse in rotifers?

(2016) Stefan Sommer et al.   HYDROBIOLOGIA

Reversal of a cyanobacterial bloom in response to early warnings

(2016) Michael L. Pace et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Evaluating early-warning indicators of critical transitions in natural aquatic ecosystems

(2016) Alena Sonia Gsell et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

In-lake measures for phosphorus control: The most feasible and cost-effective solution for long-term management of water quality in urban lakes

(2016) Brian J. Huser et al.   WATER RESEARCH

Editorial – A critical perspective on geo-engineering for eutrophication management in lakes

(2016) Miquel Lürling et al.   WATER RESEARCH

Is Recovery of Large-Bodied Zooplankton after Nutrient Loading Reduction Hampered by Climate Warming? A Long-Term Study of Shallow Hypertrophic Lake Søbygaard, Denmark

(2016) María Gutierrez et al.   Water

Early warning signals, nonlinearity, and signs of hysteresis in real ecosystems

(2016) Michael A. Litzow et al.   Ecosphere

Current Browning of Surface Waters Will Be Further Promoted by Wetter Climate

(2016) Heleen A. de Wit et al.   Environmental Science & Technology Letters

Strong impact of nitrogen loading on submerged macrophytes and algae: a long-term mesocosm experiment in a shallow Chinese lake

(2015) Saara Olsen et al.   FRESHWATER BIOLOGY

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

(2015) Philip C. Reid et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Do early warning indicators consistently predict nonlinear change in long-term ecological data?

(2015) Sarah J. Burthe et al.   JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

Regime shifts, thresholds and multiple stable states in freshwater ecosystems; a critical appraisal of the evidence

(2015) Samantha J. Capon et al.   SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT

Food-web stability signals critical transitions in temperate shallow lakes

(2015) Jan J. Kuiper et al.   Nature Communications

Oxygen dynamics in a boreal lake responds to long-term changes in climate, ice phenology, and DOC inputs

(2015) Raoul-Marie Couture et al.   Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences

The Swedish monitoring of surface waters: 50 years of adaptive monitoring

(2014) Jens Fölster et al.   AMBIO

Advancing projections of phytoplankton responses to climate change through ensemble modelling

(2014) Dennis Trolle et al.   ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE

Long-term changes in hypoxia and soluble reactive phosphorus in the hypolimnion of a large temperate lake: consequences of a climate regime shift

(2013) Ryan P. North et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Zooplankton provide early warnings of a regime shift in a whole lake manipulation

(2013) Michael L. Pace et al.   LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series

(2013) Stephen R. Carpenter et al.   OIKOS

Catastrophic Collapse Can Occur without Early Warning: Examples of Silent Catastrophes in Structured Ecological Models

(2013) Maarten C. Boerlijst et al.   PLoS One

Changes in ecosystem resilience detected in automated measures of ecosystem metabolism during a whole-lake manipulation

(2013) R. D. Batt et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Conditional Heteroskedasticity Forecasts Regime Shift in a Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2012) David A. Seekell et al.   ECOSYSTEMS

Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state

(2012) Rong Wang et al.   NATURE

Early warning signals also precede non-catastrophic transitions

(2012) Sonia Kéfi et al.   OIKOS

Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy

(2012) C. Boettiger et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Generic Indicators for Loss of Resilience Before a Tipping Point Leading to Population Collapse

(2012) L. Dai et al.   SCIENCE

Anticipating Critical Transitions

(2012) M. Scheffer et al.   SCIENCE

Conditional Heteroscedasticity as a Leading Indicator of Ecological Regime Shifts

(2011) David A. Seekell et al.   AMERICAN NATURALIST

Effects of alum treatment on water quality and sediment in the Minneapolis Chain of Lakes, Minnesota, USA

(2011) Brian Huser et al.   LAKE AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

Lakes as sentinels of climate change

(2011) Rita Adrian et al.   LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

(2011) S. R. Carpenter et al.   SCIENCE

Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings

(2010) W. A. Brock et al.   ECOLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

Long-term dynamics of submerged macrophytes and algae in a small and shallow, eutrophic lake: implications for the stability of macrophyte-dominance

(2010) CARL D. SAYER et al.   FRESHWATER BIOLOGY

Cooling lakes while the world warms: Effects of forest regrowth and increased dissolved organic matter on the thermal regime of a temperate, urban lake

(2010) Tanentzap Andrew J. et al.   LIMNOLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY

Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments

(2010) John M. Drake et al.   NATURE

Critical phosphorus loading of different types of shallow lakes and the consequences for management estimated with the ecosystem model PCLake

(2008) Jan H. Janse et al.   LIMNOLOGICA

Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification

(2008) Tom Andersen et al.   TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION