Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

(2017) Helen R. Sofaer et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

(2016) Helen R. Sofaer et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part II: CONUS-Wide Assessment against Common Drought Indicators

(2016) Daniel J. McEvoy et al.   JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY

Implications of Climate Change for Wetland-Dependent Birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

(2016) Valerie A. Steen et al.   WETLANDS

Identifying the best climatic predictors in ecology and evolution

(2016) Martijn van de Pol et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

(2015) D. Stralberg et al.   ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS

Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Usinglme4

(2015) Douglas Bates et al.   Journal of Statistical Software

Multiple sources of uncertainty affect metrics for ranking conservation risk under climate change

(2014) Amber N. Wright et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

A 40-year, continent-wide, multispecies assessment of relevant climate predictors for species distribution modelling

(2014) Morgane Barbet-Massin et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America*

(2014) Tristan Ballard et al.   Earth Interactions

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: A test with plants in an arid environment

(2014) Patricio Pliscoff et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A

(2014) Valerie Steen et al.   PLoS One

Choosing and Using Climate-Change Scenarios for Ecological-Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions

(2013) AMY K. SNOVER et al.   CONSERVATION BIOLOGY

bioclim: the first species distribution modelling package, its early applications and relevance to most currentMaxEntstudies

(2013) Trevor H. Booth et al.   DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS

Selecting from correlated climate variables: a major source of uncertainty for predicting species distributions under climate change

(2013) Veronika Braunisch et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Tools for integrating range change, extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management

(2013) Damien A. Fordham et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production

(2013) Jason C. Leppi et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Hydrology as a driver of biodiversity: Controls on carrying capacity, niche formation, and dispersal

(2012) Megan Konar et al.   ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES

Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance

(2012) Carsten F. Dormann et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Do bioclimate variables improve performance of climate envelope models?

(2012) James I. Watling et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Effects of ecohydrological variables on current and future ranges, local suitability patterns, and model accuracy in big sagebrush

(2011) Daniel R. Schlaepfer et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability?

(2011) Risto K. Heikkinen et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change

(2011) H.K. Nenzén et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

(2011) Raquel A. Garcia et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change

(2011) Nicholas W. Synes et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species' Optimum Elevations

(2011) S. M. Crimmins et al.   SCIENCE

Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate

(2011) T. P. Dawson et al.   SCIENCE

Prairie Wetland Complexes as Landscape Functional Units in a Changing Climate

(2010) W. Carter Johnson et al.   BIOSCIENCE

The arcsine is asinine: the analysis of proportions in ecology

(2010) David I. Warton et al.   ECOLOGY

Dominant climate influences on North American bird distributions

(2010) Alberto Jiménez-Valverde et al.   GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Wet Area of Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota and South Dakota

(2010) Neal D. Niemuth et al.   WETLANDS

The art of modelling range-shifting species

(2010) Jane Elith et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

(2009) M. Barbet-Massin et al.   Biology Letters

BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions

(2009) Wilfried Thuiller et al.   ECOGRAPHY

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

(2009) Joshua J. Lawler et al.   ECOLOGY

Uncertainty in ensemble forecasting of species distribution

(2009) LAËTITIA BUISSON et al.   GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY

Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models

(2009) Reto Knutti et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

(2009) Richard D. Gregory et al.   PLoS One

A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems

(2009) Alain F. Zuur et al.   Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change

(2008) R. E Green et al.   Biology Letters

A comparison of the performance of threshold criteria for binary classification in terms of predicted prevalence and kappa

(2008) Elizabeth A. Freeman et al.   ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

COMPONENTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT GREY SHRIKE

(2008) Carsten F. Dormann et al.   ECOLOGY