Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

Connecting Climate Model Projections of Global Temperature Change with the Real World

(2016) Ed Hawkins et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

(2016) Nerilie J. Abram et al.   NATURE

Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

(2015) Kevin Cowtan et al.   GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing

(2015) Bjorn Stevens   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

(2015) T. R. Karl et al.   SCIENCE

False Hope

(2014) Michael E. Mann   SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN

Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium

(2013) Andrew P. Schurer et al.   JOURNAL OF CLIMATE

Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

(2013) K. S. Carslaw et al.   NATURE

Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium

(2013) Andrew P. Schurer et al.   Nature Geoscience

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

(2013)   Nature Geoscience

Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends

(2013) Kevin Cowtan et al.   QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set

(2012) Colin P. Morice et al.   JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

(2011) Karl E. Taylor et al.   BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

(2011) Manoj Joshi et al.   Nature Climate Change

Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change

(2010) Jed O. Kaplan et al.   HOLOCENE

GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE

(2010) J. Hansen et al.   REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS

A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium

(2008) J. Pongratz et al.   GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES

Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia

(2008) M. E. Mann et al.   PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA