Article
Environmental Sciences
Fan Jia, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu, Emanuele Di Lorenzo
Summary: Research suggests that under high-emissions warming scenarios, the North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) strengthens its impact on El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leading to increased frequency of extreme ENSO events and improved predictability.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Cong Guan, Feng Tian, Michael J. McPhaden, Shijian Hu, Fan Wang
Summary: Salinity anomalies in the central Pacific induce the strongest surface warming during both types of El Nino, tapering off to the east and west. The distinct sea surface salinity zonal structures between the two El Ninos amplify their difference in sea surface temperature magnitude by about 10%. Salinity effects on vertical mixing and entrainment account for the different eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Nino responses.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Review
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Matthew Collins, Boris Dewitte, Christina Karamperidou, Jong-Seong Kug, Matthieu Lengaigne, Michael J. McPhaden, Malte F. Stuecker, Andrea S. Taschetto, Axel Timmermann, Lixin Wu, Sang-Wook Yeh, Guojian Wang, Benjamin Ng, Fan Jia, Yun Yang, Jun Ying, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Tobias Bayr, Josephine R. Brown, Antonietta Capotondi, Kim M. Cobb, Bolan Gan, Tao Geng, Yoo-Geun Ham, Fei-Fei Jin, Hyun-Su Jo, Xichen Li, Xiaopei Lin, Shayne McGregor, Jae-Heung Park, Karl Stein, Kai Yang, Li Zhang, Wenxiu Zhong
Summary: This review discusses the global climatic implications of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and highlights projected increases in ENSO magnitude, rainfall, and sea surface temperature variability under anthropogenic warming. It also emphasizes the importance of understanding ENSO dynamics and highlights advancements in modeling and simulations to reduce uncertainties in future projections.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Kaiming Hu, Gang Huang, Ping Huang, Yu Kosaka, Shang-Ping Xie
Summary: The analysis of global climate model projections shows that greenhouse gas-induced warming intensifies atmospheric variability associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This intensification is primarily due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship, whereby saturation vapor pressure increases nearly exponentially with increasing temperature. The findings provide a novel theoretical constraint for ENSO changes and reduce uncertainty in the ENSO response to greenhouse warming.
Article
Oceanography
Jing Li, Lin Mu, Linhao Zhong
Summary: Research has shown that the impacts of La Nina events can vary significantly, and since the 1980s, these events have been linked to accelerated warming in the Arctic region.
ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA
(2021)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Yi Liu, Ziguang Li, Xiaopei Lin, Jun-Chao Yang
Summary: The study suggests that under greenhouse warming, the connection between El Nino and the tropical North Atlantic will strengthen, leading to an increase in anomalous warming/cooling and related weather extremes in the future.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Zhiwei Chen, Jiancheng Kang, Guodong Wang
Summary: This study analyzed the variation characteristics of extreme high temperature events in the Northwest Pacific and their relationship with El Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using NOAA SST data from 1982 to 2014. The results showed that extreme high temperature events mainly occurred from June to October, and their frequency was increasing. The study also found a linear relationship between SST in the Northwest Pacific and the intensity of ENSO, with extreme high temperature events being closely related to La Nina events in the ENSO cycle.
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Jiepeng Chen, Jin-Yi Yu, Sheng Chen, Xin Wang, Ziniu Xiao, Shih-Wei Fang
Summary: Sea surface temperature anomalies play a key role in determining the decay pace and asymmetry of El Ninos (EN) and La Ninas (LN). LN decays more slowly than EN due to larger cold anomalies over subtropical and tropical regions. Future climate warming may reduce the magnitude differences between EN and LN, weakening the asymmetry of EN-LN decay.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Benjamin Ng, Wenju Cai, Tim Cowan, Daohua Bi
Summary: This study highlights the significant impact of internal climate variability on the diversity of El Nino phenomenon, causing considerable uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2021)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Qiaohong Sun, Francis Zwiers, Xuebin Zhang, Yaheng Tan
Summary: This study examines the impact of ENSO on extreme precipitation events in the future using CESM2 large-ensemble simulations. The results show that ENSO will have a stronger influence on extreme precipitation in regions strongly affected by ENSO in the boreal cold season under future global warming. Extreme precipitation events exceeding historical thresholds are projected to become more common throughout the ENSO cycle, with increased intensity and variability.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Physics, Fluids & Plasmas
Ruby Saha, Neelima Gupte
Summary: We construct climate networks to identify distinct signatures of climatic phenomena and discuss the predictive power of these quantities.
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Omid Alizadeh, Morteza Qadimi, Mona Zolghadrshojaee, Parviz Irannejad
Summary: The study analyzes the changes in El Nino events in the future under different socioeconomic scenarios, and the increase in central Pacific El Nino over the past few decades.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Peter van Rensch, Shayne McGregor, Dietmar Dommenget
Summary: A robust simulation of tropical Pacific Ocean decadal-scale zonal wind stress trends is crucial for accurate projections of global surface temperature and regional sea level rise. However, current models underestimate these trends compared to observations, even when forced with observed sea surface temperatures. The discrepancy is related to deficiencies in monthly wind stress variability and the strength of connectivity between the surface and 850 hPa level.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Leishan Jiang, Tim Li, Yoo-Geun Ham
Summary: Despite a weak linear relation between the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (EA SSTA) and preceding winter El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an EA warming event is typically preceded by either an El Nino or La Nina phase. The physical mechanisms behind this asymmetric impact were investigated through observations and modeling analyses. El Nino-induced EA warming is caused by El Nino-related SSTA in the South Atlantic, while La Nina-induced EA warming is driven by westerly anomalies during the decaying spring. The asymmetric response in the South Atlantic is attributed to the differential heating strength over the central Pacific and Maritime Continent. The distinct evolutions of El Nino and La Nina also contribute to the asymmetric EA response. The study suggests that the South Atlantic SSTA and ENSO temporal evolution play crucial roles in explaining the asymmetric impacts of El Nino and La Nina on EA warming.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Guojian Wang, Zhao Jing, Bolan Gan, Yun Yang, Shujun Li, Shengpeng Wang, Zhaohui Chen, Michael J. McPhaden
Summary: This study finds that the increased variability of El Nino sea surface temperature under global warming may emerge earlier than previously anticipated, and it is likely to first occur in the eastern Pacific region.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Daohua Bi, Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Arnold Sullivan, Benjamin Ng, Fan Jia
Summary: The study finds that correcting the tropical Atlantic temperature bias in climate models can improve the simulation of the periodicity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), suggesting that capturing the influence from the tropical Atlantic is crucial for accurately simulating ENSO.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Agus Santoso, Matthew H. England, Jules B. Kajtar, Wenju Cai
Summary: This study investigates the variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) phase 5 and the SODA-2.2.4 ocean reanalysis. The study finds that the CMIP5 models generally capture aspects of ITF variability consistent with the reanalysis but with substantial intermodel differences. Two dominant principal vertical structures of ITF variability are identified: a surface-intensified transport anomaly (ITFM1) and an anomalous transport characterized by opposing flows in the surface and subsurface (ITFM2). ITFM2 is linked to both ENSO and IOD, while the driver of ITFM1 differs between the reanalysis and the CMIP5 models. Furthermore, the CMIP5 ITF variability tends to be weaker than in the reanalysis due to the models' tendency to simulate a delayed IOD response to ENSO. Considering the vertical structure of ITF variability is important for understanding the impact of ENSO and IOD, as demonstrated by the close link between greenhouse-forced changes in ENSO variability and projected changes in subsurface ITF variability.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Chiara Holgate, Jason P. Evans, Andrea S. Taschetto, Alex Sen Gupta, Agus Santoso
Summary: This study investigates how climate modes modulate the sources of moisture for rainfall in east Australia. It finds that La Nina leads to wetter conditions in the region due to increased moisture transport and easier conversion into rainfall, while El Nino leads to drier conditions due to inhibiting local conversion of moisture into rainfall. Distant atmospheric changes over the Indian and Southern Oceans can amplify these changes. The results contribute to a better understanding and prediction of the regional impact of long-term changes in these climate variability modes, which can potentially be altered under climate change.
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Xiuwen Guo, Yang Gao, Shaoqing Zhang, Lixin Wu, Ping Chang, Wenju Cai, Jakob Zscheischler, L. Ruby Leung, Justin Small, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Luanne Thompson, Huiwang Gao
Summary: This study using a high-resolution Earth system model reveals that future intensity and annual days of marine heatwaves (MHWs) over large marine ecosystems (LMEs) will remain higher than in the present-day climate. The better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables more realistic simulations of MHWs compared to low-resolution models. These findings suggest that the increasing MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, Kai Yang
Summary: Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a crucial role in its global impact. The IPCC's sixth assessment shows that there is no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under different emission scenarios, but there is a robust increase in century-long ENSO SST variability under various IPCC emission scenarios. Models indicate increased variability in the 21st century compared to the 20th century.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Y. Mao, Y. Zou, L. M. Alves, E. E. N. Macau, A. S. Taschetto, A. Santoso, J. Kurths
Summary: This study investigates the direct and indirect impacts of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans on precipitation in the region of Northeast Brazil using nonlinear methods. The results reveal that the tropical North Atlantic plays a dominant role in precipitation deficit and droughts, while the indirect phase synchronizations between the Pacific and North Atlantic have significant influence on and reinforcement of the droughts in NEB. Furthermore, the instantaneous angular frequencies of precipitation and SST are drastically changed after strong El Nino and La Nina events, resulting in a higher probability of phase coherence.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2022)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Kai Yang, Wenju Cai, Gang Huang, Kaiming Hu, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang
Summary: Anomalous strengthening of the western Pacific subtropical high can lead to increased moisture transport and extreme weather events in East Asia. Climate models suggest that under greenhouse warming, the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high will increase, resulting in more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as flooding in the Yangtze River Valley of East China.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Lixin Wu, John C. Fyfe, Sang-Wook Yeh, Benjamin Ng, Kai Yang, Michael J. McPhaden
Summary: Research shows that the change in amplitude of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is linked to Southern Ocean warming. Models with a larger increase in ENSO amplitude predict a slower warming, while models with a smaller increase in amplitude predict a stronger warming. The asymmetry in amplitude and teleconnection between El Nino and La Nina impacts Southern Ocean heat uptake.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yun Yang, Lixin Wu, Wenju Cai, Fan Jia, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang, Tao Geng
Summary: The study suggests that the Atlantic Nino/Nina system is likely to weaken under global warming, while El Nino/La Nina SST variability in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean Dipole variability are projected to increase.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Yi Liu, Wenju Cai, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li
Summary: The interannual variability of the Atlantic intertropical convergence zone has significant impacts on hydrological cycles, extreme weather events, ecosystems, agriculture and livelihoods in Atlantic-rim countries. A study using climate models under a high-emission scenario projects a doubling increase in extreme northward swings, driven by faster sea surface warming north of the Equator. This finding suggests an increase in severe droughts and floods in the Atlantic-rim countries.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2022)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Fan Jia, Shujun Li, Ariaan Purich, Guojian Wang, Lixin Wu, Bolan Gan, Agus Santoso, Tao Geng, Benjamin Ng, Yun Yang, David Ferreira, Gerald A. Meehl, Michael J. McPhaden
Summary: The authors demonstrate that an expected rise in El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability leads to accelerated warming of the Antarctic shelf ocean but slower warming around the sea ice edges. This has implications for ice melt. While the warming of the Antarctic shelf ocean affects the melting of ice shelf/sheets and sea ice, the projected changes vary significantly across different climate models.
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
(2023)
Article
Environmental Sciences
Wenju Cai, Benjamin Ng, Tao Geng, Fan Jia, Lixin Wu, Guojian Wang, Yu Liu, Bolan Gan, Kai Yang, Agus Santoso, Xiaopei Lin, Ziguang Li, Yi Liu, Yun Yang, Fei-Fei Jin, Mat Collins, Michael J. McPhaden
Summary: A study suggests that ENSO sea surface temperature variability has increased since 1960, with more frequent strong El Nino and La Nina events. It is believed that this increase is related to greenhouse gas forcing.
NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Z. E. Gillett, A. S. Taschetto, C. M. Holgate, A. Santoso
Summary: ENSO is the main driver of interannual east Australian rainfall variability. By tracking low pressure systems, it was found that springtime cyclones are linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during ENSO events. Cyclone days during La Nina lead to rainfall in eastern Australia, while cyclone days during El Nino reduce rainfall in this region. These synoptic setups resemble the seasonal-mean Rossby wave teleconnections, indicating a link between weather systems and ENSO.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Bryam Orihuela-Pinto, Agus Santoso, Matthew H. England, Andrea S. Taschetto
Summary: The changes in the tropical Pacific can influence the climate of remote areas around the world. This study shows that a cooling in the tropical Pacific can strengthen the Atlantic's meridional overturning circulation, with atmospheric and oceanic waves playing a role in altering local climate conditions. These findings highlight the importance of the tropical Pacific in influencing the multidecadal timescales of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
(2023)
Article
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Soon-Il An, Hyo-Jin Park, Soong-Ki Kim, Wenju Cai, Agus Santoso, Daehyun Kim, Jong-Seong Kug
Summary: The Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon (IOD) is a zonal contrast pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on interannual time scales. The positive phase of IOD is characterized by warm western TIO and cold southeastern TIO, and it is usually stronger than its negative phase. This study investigates the causes of IOD asymmetry using a prototype IOD model, considering various physical processes such as nonlinear feedback, El Nino's asymmetric impact, and state-dependent noise. The results show that the leading cause of IOD asymmetry without considering seasonality is a local nonlinear process, followed by the state-dependent noise and the direct effect of positively skewed ENSO, with almost equal contributions from the latter two. However, the contributions of each process vary with seasons, with the local nonlinear feedback and state-dependent noise being major drivers of IOD asymmetry in boreal summer, and the ENSO impacts becoming important in boreal fall along with the other two processes.
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
(2023)