Improving the prediction of overall survival for head and neck cancer patients using image biomarkers in combination with clinical parameters

Purpose: To develop and validate prediction models of overall survival (OS) for head and neck cancer (HNC) patients based on image biomarkers (IBMs) of the primary tumor and positive lymph nodes (Ln) in combination with clinical parameters. Material and methods: The study cohort was composed of 289 nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) patients from China and 298 HNC patients from the Netherlands. Multivariable Cox-regression analysis was performed to select clinical parameters from the NPC and HNC datasets, and IBMs from the NPC dataset. Final prediction models were based on both IBMs and clinical parameters. Results: Multivariable Cox-regression analysis identified three independent IBMs (tumor Volume density, Run Length Non-uniformity and Ln Major-axis-length). This IBM model showed a concordance (c)-index of 0.72 (95%Cl: 0.65-0.79) for the NPC dataset, which performed reasonably with a c-index of 0.67 (95%Cl: 0.62-0.72) in the external validation HNC dataset. When IBMs were added in clinical models, the c-index of the NPC and HNC datasets improved to 0.75 (95%Cl: 0.68-0.82; p = 0.019) and 0.75 (95%Cl: 0.70-0.81; p < 0.001), respectively. Conclusion: The addition of IBMs from the primary tumor and Ln improved the prognostic performance of the models containing clinical factors only. These combined models may improve pre-treatment individualized prediction of OS for HNC patients. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.