Article
Business
Francis Annan, Bikramaditya Datta
Summary: The interaction between informal institutions and formal markets is a key economic question, especially in developing countries. This study examines the demand for an innovative weather insurance product and investigates how informal risk-sharing can act as a barrier or support to the uptake of index-based insurance. The findings provide alternative explanations for empirical puzzles and highlight the potential of combining premium subsidies and informal networks to promote better weather risk protection.
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
(2022)
Article
Ecology
Adiel Moyal, Amos Schurr
Summary: When given the chance to avoid information about the negative consequences of their selfish behavior on others, many people choose to remain ignorant, leading to a decrease in prosocial behavior. However, recent research has found that in environmental contexts, people do not avoid information about the negative impact of their choices on pro-environmental organizations, and choosing to remain ignorant does not affect their proenvironmental behavior. The procedure followed to remain ignorant plays a critical role in shaping this decision.
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
(2022)
Article
Business
Dionysius Ang, Enrico Diecidue, Siegfried Dewitte
Summary: Consumers prefer control over pricing, but are deterred by effort and tend to underpay. Anticipated regret and deliberation are identified as psychological determinants for consumers' willingness to pay (WTP). Through three studies and a meta-analysis of 11 studies, the research shows that anticipated regret and deliberation increase WTP for the preferred option. This provides a potential solution for underpaying and has implications for future research and management.
JOURNAL OF BUSINESS RESEARCH
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Experimental
Ralph Hertwig, Dagmar Ellerbrock
Summary: The study investigates the reasons behind deliberate ignorance and finds a wide range of reasons, with participants prioritizing cooperation and harmony over concerns of transparency and justice. The findings highlight the role of deliberate ignorance in shaping individual and collective memory culture and its impact on societal change.
Article
Gerontology
Ralph Hertwig, Jan K. Woike, Juergen Schupp
Summary: The research found that older adults tend to deliberately choose ignorance more than younger adults, but the relationship with openness, risk preference, and neuroticism is inconsistent.
PSYCHOLOGY AND AGING
(2021)
Article
Biodiversity Conservation
Ted Loch-Temzelides
Summary: Livestock insurance allows livestock owners to pool resources to hedge against predator attacks, with benefits depending on the level of risk aversion. Research suggests that such insurance contracts can reduce leopard killings, depending on the degree of risk aversion. Surveys to measure risk aversion among local livestock owners are recommended before implementing insurance policies for conservation goals.
CONSERVATION LETTERS
(2021)
Article
Management
Andres Fioriti, Allan Hernandez-Chanto
Summary: This study explores the behavior and effects of risk-averse bidders in security design auctions, finding that steeper securities attract more aggressive bidding from risk-averse bidders, resulting in increased allocative efficiency of the auction. Furthermore, the study analyzes the relationship between security design and auction formats.
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Kaixin Wangzhou, Mahnoor Khan, Sajjad Hussain, Muhammad Ishfaq, Rabia Farooqi
Summary: This study examines the effects of regret aversion and information cascade on investment decisions in the real estate sector of developing countries, considering the moderating role of financial literacy and the mediating effect of risk perception. The research findings confirmed that financial literacy weakens the negative impact of behavioral biases on investment decisions, while risk perception mediates the relationships between these biases and decision-making. Future research should explore the effects of other behavioral biases in real estate and stock market contexts.
FRONTIERS IN PSYCHOLOGY
(2021)
Article
Agricultural Economics & Policy
Williams Ali, Awudu Abdulai, Renan Goetz, Victor Owusu
Summary: This paper analyzes smallholder farmers' willingness to participate in crop insurance programs using recent data from cocoa farmers in Ghana. The study found that risk preferences, ambiguity aversion, and liquidity constraints influence farmers' willingness to participate, and that wealth, trust, and education also play a role in their participation decisions.
AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS
(2021)
Article
Economics
Sai S. Krishnan, Subramanian S. Iyer
Summary: This study examines how waste aversion can impact insurance purchase behavior. The findings suggest that individuals who are averse to waste tend to seek less insurance coverage compared to those who are not.
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Ralph Hertwig, Stefan M. Herzog, Anastasia Kozyreva
Summary: Inequalities and injustices in liberal societies are caused by implicit social bias, and using algorithms to make crucial decisions can both mitigate and perpetuate biases. Rawls's veil of ignorance and deliberate ignorance can help shield individuals, institutions, and algorithms from biases. The research agenda should focus on improving human judgment accuracy by concealing biasing information and proposing interdisciplinary research questions.
PERSPECTIVES ON PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Mathematics
Wing Yan Lee, Derrick W. H. Fung
Summary: This paper examines self-insurance-cum-protection using Yaari's dual theory and identifies two sufficient conditions and the impact of increased risk aversion on the level of self-insurance-cum-protection. It also explores how the availability of market insurance affects the level of self-insurance-cum-protection.
Article
Business
Wesley Mendes-Da-Silva, Cristiane C. Gattaz, David Gibson
Summary: This study examines decision making in the absence of information and its impact on insurance purchasing behavior. Findings show that lack of economic information negatively affects the propensity to acquire insurance, while repair costs and probability of equipment failure increase the likelihood of purchasing extended warranties.
RBGN-REVISTA BRASILEIRA DE GESTAO DE NEGOCIOS
(2021)
Article
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
Philipp Kadel, Irac E. E. Herwig, Jutta Mata
Summary: Despite the availability of information regarding the negative consequences of meat consumption, many Western countries still have a significantly higher meat consumption than recommended. This can be attributed to a phenomenon called deliberate ignorance, where people consciously choose to ignore this information. The study found that deliberate ignorance can hinder information interventions aimed at reducing meat consumption and should be taken into consideration for future interventions and research. Self-efficacy exercises show promise in reducing deliberate ignorance and should be explored further.
PSYCHOLOGY & HEALTH
(2023)
Article
Automation & Control Systems
Hao Wang, Ning Wang, Lin Xu, Shujie Hu, Xingyu Yan
Summary: This paper examines the optimal investment-consumption-insurance policies for a wage earner with time-varying risk preferences and solves the problem by dividing it into two sub-problems. Some economic insights are obtained through numerical experiments.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONTROL
(2023)
Article
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Felix G. Rebitschek, Gerd Gigerenzer, Ariane Keitel, Sarah Sommer, Christian Gross, Gert G. Wagner
Summary: The study found that insurers in Germany rarely use the features considered most relevant and justifiable by participants, and that programme acceptance is dependent on the acceptance of a few key features. Heuristic models can aid in designing scoring programmes that are more likely to be accepted.
Article
Education & Educational Research
Philipp B. Baenninger, Lucas M. Bachmann, Katja C. Iselin, Oliver A. Pfaeffli, Claude Kaufmann, Michael A. Thiel, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: The study aimed to assess the level of keratoconus knowledge among general ophthalmologists in Switzerland. Findings revealed a significant gap between corneal specialists' expectations and general ophthalmologists' knowledge, with none meeting the minimal knowledge criteria. Private practice experience was associated with lower MKK levels.
BMC MEDICAL EDUCATION
(2021)
Review
Medicine, General & Internal
Perke Jacobs, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: This study estimated the demand for review downloads and summary views under free access across all OECD countries, with results suggesting that free access would cost less than US$2 per additional download for 20 of the 28 OECD countries without national subscriptions.
Editorial Material
Psychology, Biological
Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: Research practice is often influenced by routines rather than introspection, leading to inappropriate generalizations. The routine of sampling subjects without considering stimuli likely stems from administrative concerns rather than scientific considerations. The practice of sampling subjects and testing their averages for significance is reinforced by misconceptions about its importance, including the misconception of replicability.
BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Applied
Gerd Gigerenzer, Jochen Reb, Shenghua Luan
Summary: Heuristics are fast, frugal, and accurate strategies for decision making under uncertainty in organizational contexts. Descriptive research identifies the repertoire of heuristics, while prescriptive research specifies the conditions under which a given heuristic performs well. The field of heuristics in organizational studies is relatively small but rapidly developing, with promising future research directions including the impact of culture on heuristic use and the role of heuristics in shaping organizational culture.
ANNUAL REVIEW OF ORGANIZATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR
(2022)
Article
Economics
Florian M. Artinger, Gerd Gigerenzer, Perke Jacobs
Summary: This paper surveys more than 60 years of advances in understanding satisficing in economics, psychology, and management. It identifies two research traditions that address different classes of situations: under risk, satisficing is typically inferior to optimization strategies and modeled according to the neoclassical framework; under uncertainty, satisficing strategies are often derived empirically and can be highly effective. The paper integrates these two research traditions and shows the conditions under which satisficing can be rational.
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE
(2022)
Editorial Material
Economics
Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Ozgur Simsek, Marcus Buckmann, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: This response focuses on psychological AI and introduces the trend-recency heuristic as an example. It compares this heuristic with forecasting models using trend damping and emphasizes the importance of ecological rationality and transparency in psychological AI research.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2022)
Article
Economics
Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Ozgur Simsek, Marcus Buckmann, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: Research shows that simple rules and theory-inspired heuristics often outperform complex big data models in forecasting accuracy. These heuristics are transparent and clearly communicate the underlying rationale for their predictions.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING
(2022)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: Collaboration between researchers is crucial for discovery and innovation. To establish and maintain a successful collaborative environment, it is important to have a common topic and multiple disciplines, an open culture, and spatial and temporal proximity. By setting collective goals, including contrasting opinions, distributing responsibility, taking risks, following the cake rule, and practicing side-by-side writing, an open culture can be maintained and scientific progress can be achieved.
Review
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Yuhui Wang, Shenghua Luan, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: This article introduces the research program on fast-and-frugal heuristics, including theoretical principles, research approaches, and two specific heuristics. It shows that simple heuristics can predict as accurately as or better than more complex models with less effort.
Article
Psychology
Jan K. Woike, Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: This study aimed to test two competing theoretical views on how people infer the Bayesian posterior probability: single-process theories and toolbox theories. Through analyzing data from a large number of participants, little support was found for the tested single-process theories. However, simulations showed that a single process, the weighing-and-adding model, could best fit the aggregate data and achieve the best out-of-sample prediction. Testing five non-Bayesian rules plus Bayes's rule, a toolbox was found to capture 64% of the inferences.
COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Multidisciplinary
Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: Psychological artificial intelligence applies psychological insights to design computer algorithms for decision-making under uncertainty. The examples of predicting flu and recidivism demonstrate how incorporating psychological theories can improve algorithm efficiency and transparency.
PERSPECTIVES ON PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Biological
Gerd Gigerenzer
Summary: Narratives and heuristics are tools for handling complex real-world situations. Heuristics choose narratives to explain events, while big narratives influence the heuristics that individuals adopt to live according to their values and moral principles.
BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES
(2023)
Article
Psychology, Experimental
Gerd Gigerenzer, Jan Multmeier, Andrea Foehring, Odette Wegwarth
Summary: Research suggests that children can solve Bayesian problems by counting tokens in icon arrays and understanding when to count, even children with dyscalculia can achieve a similar level of performance as those without the disorder. As children grow older, their mathematical abilities also improve, with seventh graders able to solve about two thirds of Bayesian problems with natural frequencies alone.
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-GENERAL
(2021)
Article
Business
David Aikman, Mirta Galesic, Gerd Gigerenzer, Sujit Kapadia, Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Amit Kothiyal, Emma Murphy, Tobias Neumann
Summary: The study suggests that simple methods may outperform more complex approaches in calculating bank capital requirements and predicting individual bank failures, especially when data are limited or risks are fat-tailed. Additionally, combining different indicators to predict bank failures, simple and easy-to-communicate decision trees can perform comparably to standard, information-intensive regressions.
INDUSTRIAL AND CORPORATE CHANGE
(2021)