Long-term risk of diabetes in women at varying durations after gestational diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis with more than 2 million women

This study aims to investigate the impact of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on the long-term risks of diabetes in women with prior GDM, including the effect at different time periods after GDM. We searched PubMed and other databases to retrieve articles which were published prior to February 28, 2017. Cohort studies which evaluated the risk and time of onset of diabetes postpartum in women with and without GDM were included. Meta-analysis with random effects models was used to obtain pooled relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of diabetes. Subgroup analyses were performed to check for different effect sizes as well as consistency across groups. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounders. Thirty cohort studies with 2,626,905 pregnant women were included. Women with prior GDM had 7.76-fold (95% confidence intervals: 5.10-11.81) unadjusted pooled risk of diabetes as compared with women without GDM, whilst the adjusted risk was 17.92-fold (16.96-18.94). The adjusted ORs of GDM for diabetes among women at <3, >= 3 - <6 and >= 6 - <10 years after GDM were 5.37 (3.51-9.34), 16.55 (16.08-17.04) and 8.20 (4.53-14.86), respectively. Women with prior GDM had substantially increased risk of diabetes, with the risk highest during the 3-6 years after GDM.