Computer-assisted measurement of primary tumor area is prognostic of recurrence-free survival in stage IB melanoma patients

Current staging guidelines are insufficient to predict which patients with thin primary melanoma are at high risk of recurrence. Computer-assisted image analysis may allow for more practical and objective histopathological analysis of primary tumors than traditional light microscopy. We studied a prospective cohort of stage IB melanoma patients treated at NYU Langone Medical Center from 2002 to 2014. Primary tumor width, manual area, digital area, and conformation were evaluated in a patient subset via computer-assisted image analysis. The associations between histologic variables and survival were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards model. Logistic regressions were used to build a classifier with clinicopathological characteristics to predict recurrence status. Of the 655 patients with stage IB melanoma studied, a subset of 149 patient tumors (63 recurred, 86 did not recur) underwent computer-assisted histopathological analysis. Increasing tumor width (hazard ratios (HR): 1.17, P=0.01) and digital area (HR: 1.08, P < 0.01) were significantly associated with worse recurrence-free survival, whereas non-contiguous conformation (HR: 0.57, P=0.05) was significantly associated with better recurrence-free survival. The novel histopathological classifier composed of digital area, conformation, and baseline variables effectively distinguished recurrent cases from non-recurrent cases (AUC: 0.733, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.647-0.818), compared to the baseline classifier alone (AUC: 0.635, 95% CI: 0.545-0.724). Primary tumor cross-sectional area, width, and conformation measured via computer-assisted analysis may help identify high-risk patients with stage IB melanoma.