Evidence of a tipping point in a southern African savanna?

Many ecosystems exhibit threshold behaviour, where periods of relative stability are punctuated by rapid transitions between alternate stable states when an ecological threshold, or tipping point, is reached. This is of concern in grass-dominated habitats, many of which appear to be on the point of conversion to more wooded vegetation assemblages. However, changes in grass-dominated ecosystems are often difficult to interpret, because it is not always clear whether grasslands are ancient or are anthropogenically derived from past deforestation. As a result, the conservation, maintenance and restoration of ancient grasslands are sometimes neglected. In this study, the history of vegetation change in the savannas of the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, are investigated by analysing stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13) from soil profiles. Without exception, the data show that C-3 dominated thicket, forest, and densely wooded savanna now occur on sites that were previously C-4 grassland or open savanna. Although the drivers of this change are not clear, there is potential for management intervention because tree density can be manipulated through fire, a natural part of this dynamic landscape. The study identified two sites which are at a threshold between C-4 and C-3 dominance, and highlighted them as priorities for conservation management intervention. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.