iCity 3D: A geosimualtion method and tool for three-dimensional modeling of vertical urban development

Numerous North American cities are experiencing constant population growth in regions with limited available land, encouraging urban densification processes with development in the vertical direction. Vertical urban development (VUD) is a form of mid- and high-rise building development, that supports urban compactness and is inherently a three-dimensional (3D) spatial process. Land use designations, population density, and basic services are key criteria for identifying optimal locations for vertical development of mid-and high-rise buildings. The main objective of this research study is to develop iCity 3D, a 3D geosimulation modeling method and tool to represent VUD change over time. This geosimulation model consist of two stages: the urban densification land suitability analysis and the 3D generation of extruded buildings at a cadastral lot resolution. The proposed 3D geosimulation model was developed using ESRI's CityEngine software and routines were programmed with the Computer Generated Architecture (CGA) language. The City of Surrey, Canada, was used as a case study to implement the iCity 3D model and to simulate two scenarios of possible vertical development. The results of the simulations indicate that the augmented mid-and high-rise 3D building objects generated from the year 2011-2040 occur near transportation networks, urban centres, and higher population densities. The proposed iCity 3D model has the potential use in urban planning and decision-making processes.