Constructing Italian ryegrass yield prediction model based on climatic data by locations in South Korea

A yield prediction model for Italian ryegrass (IRG) was constructed based on climatic data by locations in South Korea using a general linear model. The sample size of the final dataset was 312 during 25 years. The forage crop and climatic data were collected from the reports of two national research projects on forage crops and Korean meteorological administration, respectively. Five optimal climatic variables were selected through the stepwise multiple regression analysis with dry matter yield (DMY) as the response variable. Subsequently, three climatic variables were selected after considering the interpretability of the five variables. The three selected climatic variables were spring accumulated temperature, mean temperature in January and spring rainfall days. Then, the yield prediction model was constructed based on these three climatic variables using general linear model with the cultivated locations as dummy variables. The model constructed in this research could explain 73.6% of variation in DMY of IRG. The goodness-of-fit of the model was tested through residual diagnostics and 10-fold cross-validation. For climatic variables, the high partial eta squared value of spring accumulated temperature and spring rainfall may reflect the growth characteristics that spring is the main growing period for IRG and IRG has strong waterlogging tolerance and weak drought tolerance. The results may also support the possibility to sow IRG in the subsequent spring if autumnal seeding was missed in South Korea.