An integrated decision support system based on ANN and Fuzzy_AHP for heart failure risk prediction

Heart failure (HF) has been considered as one of the deadliest human diseases worldwide and the accurate prediction of HF risks would be vital for HF prevention and treatment. To predict HF risks, decision support systems based on artificial neural networks (ANN) have been widely proposed in previous studies. Generally, these existing ANN-based systems usually assumed that HF attributes have equal risk contribution to the HF diagnosis. However, several previous investigations have shown that the risk contributions of the attributes would be different. Thus the equal risk assumption concept associated with existing ANN methods would not properly reflect the diagnosis status of HF patients. In this study, the commonly used 13 HF attributes were considered and their contributions were determined by an experienced cardiac clinician. And Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (Fuzzy_AHP) technique was used to compute the global weights for the attributes based on their individual contribution. Then the global weights that represent the contributions of the attributes were applied to train an ANN classifier for the prediction of HF risks in patients. The performance of the newly proposed decision support system based on the integration of ANN and Fuzzy_AHP methods was evaluated by using online clinical dataset of 297 HF patients and compared with that of the conventional ANN method. Our result shows that the proposed method could achieve an average prediction accuracy of 91.10%, which is 4.40% higher in comparison to that of the conventional ANN method. In addition, the newly proposed method also had better performance than seven previous methods that reported prediction accuracies in the range of 57.85-89.01%. The improvement of the HF risk prediction in the current study might be due to both the various contributions of the HF attributes and the proposed hybrid method. These findings suggest that the proposed method could be used to accurately predict HF risks in the clinic. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.