期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 106, 期 -, 页码 415-426出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.063
关键词
Electric vehicle; Lithium-ion battery; Battery design; Expert elicitation; Technology forecasting
资金
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- National Science Foundation [0747911]
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- Climate and Energy Decision Making Center [SES-0949710]
- Research for Advanced Manufacturing in Pennsylvania (RAMP)
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences [1463492] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
There are a large number of accounts about rapidly declining costs of batteries with potentially transformative effects, but these accounts often are not based on detailed design and technical information. Using a method ideally suited for that purpose, we find that when experts are free to assume any battery pack design, a majority of the cost estimates are consistent with the ranges reported in the literature, although the range is notably large. However, we also find that 55% of relevant experts' component-level cost projections are inconsistent with their total pack-level projections, and 55% of relevant experts' elicited cost projections are inconsistent with the cost projections generated by putting their design-and process-level assumptions into our process based cost model (PBCM). These results suggest a need for better understanding of the technical assumptions driving popular consensus regarding future costs. Approaches focusing on technological details first, followed by non-aggregated and systemic cost estimates while keeping the experts aware of any discrepancies, should they arise, may result in more accurate forecasts.
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