期刊
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
卷 121, 期 2, 页码 795-806出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023858
关键词
North Pacific subtropical high; California winter precipitation; Hadley cell; uncertainty in future projections
资金
- Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program [KMIPA 2015-2100]
- Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the Regional and Global Climate Modeling program
- NSF [AGS-0846641, AGS-0936059, AGS-1359464, PLR-1341497]
- UW Royalty Research Fund grant
This study examines future projections of sea level pressure change in the North Pacific and its impact on winter precipitation changes in California. The multimodel analysis, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, shows a robust sea level pressure change in the late 21st century over the western North Pacific in which both the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) shift poleward in concert with a widening of the Hadley cell. This change is partly explained by a systematic increase of static stability in the subtropics. Despite its robustness, the projected NPSH changes over the eastern North Pacific exhibit a substantial intermodel spread, contributing as a cause for uncertain projections of precipitation changes in California. This intermodel spread in the eastern North Pacific is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like surface temperature change in the western North Pacific and the resulting meridional temperature gradient change. This study points to a major source of uncertainty for the response of winter precipitation to global warming over the West Coast of North America: atmosphere-ocean coupling in the North Pacific.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据